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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?
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Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?

机译：在中国，控制2009 H1N1大流行是否需要强制性检疫？

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The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.
机译：中国政府实施了为期60天（2009年5月10日至7月8日）的强制隔离措施，以控制2009年H1N1大流行的蔓延。这种预防策略比许多其他国家/地区执行的其他非药物干预措施更为严格。我们评估了强制隔离的有效性，并提供了针对未来可能发生的流感大流行的干预措施的建议。我们选择了一个城市北京作为分析目标。我们回顾了2009年H1N1大流行的流行病学动态以及在北京实施的隔离措施。使用确定性易感暴露-传染恢复（SEIR）模型在两种情况（隔离和未隔离）下模拟了感染人群。调整了基本繁殖数R 0 以适应北京的流行病流行。我们发现，强制隔离措施将2009年H1N1大流行在北京的传播推迟了一个半月。如果北京不执行强制性检疫，那么到10月21日，传染病人口可能已达到1,553，即比所观察到的数字高5.6倍。考虑到检疫费用，强制性检疫不是针对2009年H1N1大流行的经济有效干预措施。我们建议对死亡率和发病率低的流感大流行采取缓解措施。

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