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Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

机译：研究气候变化新方案中的健康

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摘要

The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible.
机译：气候变化研究界正在开发一种工具包，用于创建新的场景，以探索和评估与未来气候变化和发展路径相关的广泛不确定性。该工具包的组成部分包括本世纪温室气体排放的途径及其相关的气候变化幅度和模式;描述一系列可能的社会经济发展途径，包括定性叙述和定量要素;以及气候变化政策，以达到特定水平的辐射强迫和适应能力水平。这些组件在矩阵体系结构中组合在一起以创建场景。沿轴描述了五种参考的社会经济发展路径，这些路径描述了适应和缓解所面临的日益严峻的社会经济和环境挑战。本文扩展了这些全球途径，以描述它们可能对公共卫生和医疗保健产生的后果，并考虑了可以添加的其他要素，以增加新方案的相关性，以解决比以往更大范围的与政策相关的问题。

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