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An analysis of rainfall-based warning systems for sediment disasters in Japan and Taiwan

机译：日本和台湾基于降雨的沉积物灾害预警系统分析

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摘要

Rainfall-based warning systems are widely used as a means of evacuating inhabitants to prevent sediment disasters. However, considering that only 2.2% of Japanese local governments carried out evacuation orders after sediment disaster alerts were issued in 2008, it appears that the existing rainfall-based warning systems are neither effective nor taken seriously. Furthermore, the case study of Shiaolin village in Taiwan indicates that the existing rainfall-based warning systems may not be sufficient. In addition, most assessments of the effectiveness of warning systems have merely examined whether alerts were issued before a disaster occurred; the appropriate timing of alerts has not been thoroughly studied. Here, we examine the characteristics of the warning models and warning-issuing systems in Japan and Taiwan. We propose evaluation indices of the effectiveness of warnings, and focus on the shortcomings of rainfall-based warning models through case studies of disasters and several years of statistical data. Finally, we recommend improvements to disaster prevention strategies.
机译：基于降雨的预警系统被广泛用作疏散居民以防止沉积物灾害的手段。但是，考虑到在2008年沉积物灾害警报发布后，只有2.2％的日本地方政府执行了疏散命令，因此看来现有的基于降雨的预警系统既没有效果，也没有得到重视。此外，台湾Shiaolin村的案例研究表明，现有的基于降雨的预警系统可能还不够。此外，大多数对预警系统有效性的评估仅检查了灾难发生之前是否发出了警报;警报的适当时机尚未得到彻底研究。在这里，我们研究了日本和台湾的警告模型和警告发布系统的特征。我们提出了预警效果的评估指标，并通过灾害案例研究和数年的统计数据，着重于基于降雨的预警模型的缺点。最后，我们建议改进防灾策略。

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