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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Predictive Modeling of West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in the Mediterranean Basin: How Far from Landing?
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Predictive Modeling of West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in the Mediterranean Basin: How Far from Landing?

机译：地中海盆地西尼罗河病毒传播风险的预测模型：距离登陆有多远？

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摘要

The impact on human and horse health of West Nile fever (WNF) recently and dramatically increased in Europe and neighboring countries. Involving several mosquito and wild bird species, WNF epidemiology is complex. Despite the implementation of surveillance systems in several countries of concern, and due to a lack of knowledge, outbreak occurrence remains unpredictable. Statistical models may help identifying transmission risk factors. When spatialized, they provide tools to identify areas that are suitable for West Nile virus transmission. Mathematical models may be used to improve our understanding of epidemiological process involved, to evaluate the impact of environmental changes or test the efficiency of control measures. We propose a systematic literature review of publications aiming at modeling the processes involved in WNF transmission in the Mediterranean Basin. The relevance of the corresponding models as predictive tools for risk mapping, early warning and for the design of surveillance systems in a changing environment is analyzed.
机译：西尼罗河热（WNF）对人和马健康的影响最近在欧洲和周边国家急剧增加。 WNF的流行病学涉及多种蚊虫和野生鸟类。尽管在几个有关国家中实施了监视系统，并且由于缺乏知识，但暴发的发生仍然是不可预测的。统计模型可能有助于识别传播风险因素。在进行空间划分时，它们提供了确定适合西尼罗河病毒传播的区域的工具。数学模型可用于增进我们对所涉及的流行病学过程的理解，评估环境变化的影响或测试控制措施的效率。我们提议对出版物进行系统的文献综述，旨在模拟地中海盆地WNF传播所涉及的过程。分析了相应模型作为风险测绘，预警和变化环境中监视系统设计的预测工具的相关性。

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