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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia
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A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia

机译：澳大利亚累积汽油（汽油）铅排放与运动神经元疾病之间的时间关联

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摘要

The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. Methods: The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Results: Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10?23), male age standardised death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10?23) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R2 = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10?44). Conclusion: Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted.
机译：运动神经元疾病（MND）的年龄标准化死亡率已从每10万人中的1.29增加到2.74，在1959年至2013年之间增加了112.4％。很明显，遗传不能在MND死亡率增加中起因果作用在这么短的时间内我们假设环境因素是造成这种速率上升的原因。我们专注于澳大利亚汽油中的铅添加剂，这可能是造成环境影响的因素。方法：使用线性回归分析了1962年至2013年澳大利亚的历史汽油铅排放与MND死亡趋势之间的关联。结果：回归结果表明，汽油铅排放滞后20年与女性年龄标准化死亡率（R2 = 0.86，p = 4.88×10？23），男性年龄标准化死亡率（R2 = 0.86，p = 9.4×10？23）和百分数均归因于MND（R2 = 0.98，p = 2.6×10？44）。结论：遗留的汽油铅排放与澳大利亚MND死亡趋势的增加有关。有必要进一步检查从接触汽油铅到MND发作之间的20年时差。

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