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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India
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Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India

机译：热度和冷度对印度西部农村地区Vadu HDSS总死亡率和特定原因死亡率的影响

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摘要

Many diseases are affected by changes in weather. There have been limited studies, however, which have examined the relationship between heat and cold and cause-specific mortality in low and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effects of heat and cold days on total and cause-specific mortality in the Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in western India. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model allowing for over-dispersion to examine the association of total and cause-specific mortality with extreme high (98th percentile, >39 °C) and low temperature (2nd percentile, <25 °C) over the period January 2003 to December 2012. Delays of 0 and 0–4 days were considered and relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Heat was significantly associated with daily deaths by non-infectious diseases (RR = 1.57; CI: 1.18–2.10). There was an increase in the risk of total mortality in the age group 12–59 years on lag 0 day (RR = 1.43; CI: 1.02–1.99). A high increase in total mortality was observed among men at lag 0 day (RR = 1.38; CI: 1.05–1.83). We did not find any short-term association between total and cause-specific mortality and cold days. Deaths from neither infectious nor external causes were associated with heat or cold. Our results showed a strong and rather immediate relationship between high temperatures and non-infectious disease mortality in a rural population located in western India, during 2003–2012. This study may be used to develop targeted interventions such as Heat Early Warning Systems in the area to reduce mortality from extreme temperatures.
机译：许多疾病都受到天气变化的影响。但是，仅有有限的研究检查了中低收入国家中冷热与特定原因死亡率之间的关系。在这项研究中，我们旨在估算高温和寒冷天对印度西部Vadu健康与人口监视系统（HDSS）地区总死亡率和特定原因死亡率的影响。我们使用准Poisson回归模型进行过度分散，以研究总死亡率和因特定原因而导致的死亡率与极端高（98％，> 39°C）和低温（2％，<25°C）的相关性。期间为2003年1月至2012年12月。考虑了0和0至4天的延迟，并计算了95％置信区间（CI）的相对风险（RR）。热量与非传染性疾病的每日死亡显着相关（RR = 1.57; CI：1.18-2.10）。在滞后0天时，12-59岁年龄组的总死亡风险增加（RR = 1.43; CI：1.02-1.99）。滞后0天，男性总死亡率有很高的增加（RR = 1.38; CI：1.05-1.83）。我们没有发现总死亡率和特定原因死亡率与寒冷天数之间有任何短期关联。既非传染性原因也不由外部原因引起的死亡与热或冷有关。我们的结果表明，在2003年至2012年期间，印度西部农村人口的高温与非传染性疾病死亡率之间存在密切而直接的关系。这项研究可用于开发有针对性的干预措施，例如该地区的热预警系统，以降低极端温度造成的死亡率。

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