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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health >Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?
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Can Public Health Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices Be Misleading?

机译：使用风险矩阵进行公共卫生风险评估会产生误导吗？

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The risk assessment matrix is a widely accepted, semi-quantitative tool for assessing risks, and setting priorities in risk management. Although the method can be useful to promote discussion to distinguish high risks from low risks, a published critique described a problem when the frequency and severity of risks are negatively correlated. A theoretical analysis showed that risk predictions could be misleading. We evaluated a practical public health example because it provided experiential risk data that allowed us to assess the practical implications of the published concern that risk matrices would make predictions that are worse than random. We explored this predicted problem by constructing a risk assessment matrix using a public health risk scenario—Tainted blood transfusion infection risk—That provides negative correlation between harm frequency and severity. We estimated the risk from the experiential data and compared these estimates with those provided by the risk assessment matrix. Although we validated the theoretical concern, for these authentic experiential data, the practical scope of the problem was limited. The risk matrix has been widely used in risk assessment. This method should not be abandoned wholesale, but users must address the source of the problem, apply the risk matrix with a full understanding of this problem and use matrix predictions to inform, but not drive decision-making.
机译：风险评估矩阵是一种广泛接受的半定量工具，用于评估风险和确定风险管理的优先级。尽管该方法对于促进讨论以区分高风险和低风险很有用，但是当风险的发生频率和严重程度负相关时，已发表的评论描述了一个问题。理论分析表明，风险预测可能会产生误导。我们评估了一个实际的公共卫生示例，因为它提供了经验风险数据，使我们能够评估已发布的担忧的实际含义，即风险矩阵会做出比随机预测更糟糕的预测。我们通过使用公共卫生风险场景（污染的输血感染风险）构建风险评估矩阵来探索此预测问题，该矩阵提供了伤害频率与严重程度之间的负相关关系。我们根据经验数据估算了风险，并将这些估算值与风险评估矩阵提供的估算值进行了比较。尽管我们验证了理论上的关注，但是对于这些真实的经验数据，问题的实际范围是有限的。风险矩阵已被广泛用于风险评估中。该方法不应大量抛弃，但用户必须解决问题的根源，在充分了解此问题的情况下应用风险矩阵，并使用矩阵预测来提供信息，但不能推动决策。

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