The Transmission Effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks in the Korean Output and Trade: A SVAR Approach

Shiyou Zhu; Seo-Hyeong Lee

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The Transmission Effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks in the Korean Output and Trade: A SVAR Approach

机译：美国货币政策冲击在韩国产出和贸易中的传导效应：SVAR方法

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This paper estimates the bilateral trade balance and real output growth rate in Korea to identify the transmission effects of the U.S. monetary policy shocks and then presents a statistical decomposition of the rate through a structural VAR using monthly data from January 1999 to December 2014. Results showed that the Korean trade balance is negatively affected by the U.S. monetary shocks through the exchange rate channel because of the most direct policy transmission channels is the international capital flows and exchange rate in the short-term. On the other hand, domestic real output is positively affected by the external monetary policy shocks over time. Thus the estimations of the trade balance and output growth in Korea suggest that, over the sample period, real economy in the small open economy influenced by the monetary policy shocks in the large country such as the U.S. Therefore, it is important to respond appropriately to changes in exchange rates in order to reduce unexpected negative influence from the external shocks.

机译：本文估算了韩国的双边贸易平衡和实际产出增长率，以确定美国货币政策冲击的传导效果，然后使用1999年1月至2014年12月的月度数据，通过结构变量VAR对该汇率进行了统计分解。结果表明由于最直接的政策传导渠道是短期内的国际资本流动和汇率，韩国贸易平衡受到美国通过汇率渠道的货币冲击的负面影响。另一方面，长期内外部货币政策的冲击对国内实际产出产生了积极影响。因此，对韩国贸易平衡和产出增长的估计表明，在样本期内，受美国等大国的货币政策冲击影响，小开放经济体中的实体经济。因此，适当应对这一问题很重要。汇率变动以减少外部冲击带来的意外负面影响。

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《International Journal of Business and Economics Research》 |2016年第4期|共8页
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Shiyou Zhu; Seo-Hyeong Lee;
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The Transmission Effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks in the Korean Output and Trade: A SVAR Approach

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