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Estimating the basic reproductive ratio for the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Sierra Leone

机译：估算利比里亚和塞拉利昂埃博拉疫情的基本繁殖率

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Background Ebola virus disease has reemerged as a major public health crisis in Africa, with isolated cases also observed globally, during the current outbreak. Methods To estimate the basic reproductive ratio R0, which is a measure of the severity of the outbreak, we developed a SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) type deterministic model, and used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Two different data sets are available: one with raw reported data and one with corrected data (as the CDC suspects under-reporting). Results Using a deterministic ordinary differential equation transmission model for Ebola epidemic, the basic reproductive ratio R0 for Liberia resulted to be 1.757 and 1.9 for corrected and uncorrected case data, respectively. For Sierra Leone, R0 resulted to be 1.492 and 1.362 for corrected and uncorrected case data, respectively. In each of the two cases we considered, the estimate for the basic reproductive ratio was initially greater than unity leading to an epidemic outbreak. Conclusion We obtained robust estimates for the value of R0 associated with the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and showed that there is close agreement between our estimates of R0. Analysis of our model also showed that effective isolation is required, with the contact rate in isolation less than one quarter of that for the infected non-isolated population, and that the fraction of high-risk individuals must be brought to less than 10% of the overall susceptible population, in order to bring the value of R0 to less than 1, and hence control the outbreak.
机译：背景埃博拉病毒病已再次成为非洲的主要公共卫生危机，在当前疫情暴发期间，全球也有孤立病例。方法为了估算基本的生殖比率R0（可用来衡量暴发的严重程度），我们建立了SEIR（易感暴露-感染-恢复）类型确定性模型，并使用了疾病控制和预防中心（CDC）的数据），以应对利比里亚和塞拉利昂的埃博拉疫情。有两种不同的数据集：一种具有原始报告的数据，另一种具有校正的数据（因为CDC怀疑报告不足）。结果使用确定性的常微分方程传播模型处理埃博拉疫情，对于校正和未校正病例数据，利比里亚的基本生殖比R0分别为1.757和1.9。对于塞拉利昂，对于更正和未更正的案例数据，R0分别为1.492和1.362。在我们考虑的两种情况中，每种情况的基本生殖比率估计值最初都大于1，导致流行病爆发。结论我们获得了与2014年埃博拉疫情相关的R0值的可靠估计，并表明我们的R0估计之间存在密切的一致性。对我们的模型的分析还表明，需要有效的隔离，隔离的接触率要小于受感染的非隔离人群的四分之一，而且高风险个体的比例必须降至小于10％为了使R0的值小于1，从而控制暴发，对总体易感人群进行了控制。

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