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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Soil, Sediment and Water >A Parametric Model for Estimating Costs for Remediating Contaminated Sediment Sites Using a Dredging Method - A Budgetary & Planning Tool for Decision-Makers
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A Parametric Model for Estimating Costs for Remediating Contaminated Sediment Sites Using a Dredging Method - A Budgetary & Planning Tool for Decision-Makers

机译：使用疏ging方法估算受污染的沉积物场地修复成本的参数模型-决策者的预算和计划工具

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摘要

Contaminated sediments, whether in freshwater or marine systems, pose a significant environmental challenge both within the United States and across the globe. When it comes to cost estimating for sediment-related cleanup projects, headline after headline seems to read something like “Cost Estimates Increased for XYZ Project” or “Cost Estimate Rises to $(fill in your own astronomical number way above original estimates).” Why do these calculations remain such a persistent challenge to financial professionals and planners charged with estimating such cleanup efforts? One predominant reason is that estimating the true costs of such projects is tremendously difficult and riddled with high degrees of uncertainty. Simply put, what professionals need is a “better mousetrap.” To develop a better “mousetrap,” we assessed the current practices employed in developing such estimates. According to the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Department of the Army, there are three basic types of cost estimation techniques that are used either individually or in combination - Analogy, Build Up, and Parametric Modeling. Each approach has been used throughout industry with varying degrees of success. However, according to the DoD/DoA, there are currently no real-world examples of parametric models for estimation of sediment treatment project costs. We have created a viable Parametric Model for assisting managers and decision-makers in developing appropriate cost estimates for the processing and disposal of dredged materials which can be used for planning and budgetary purposes, communicating with appropriate stakeholders, and providing guidance to senior management. This multi-variable financial model enables cost estimates for either a single site or a portfolio of sites [while still allowing for individual site specifications] by providing cumulative costs over the overall remediation time horizon. It allows for “what if” scenarios and provides both numerical and graphical depictions of these aforementioned cost estimates.
机译：无论是在淡水还是海洋系统中，受污染的沉积物在美国乃至全球都构成了重大的环境挑战。当涉及与沉积物有关的清理项目的成本估算时，标题之间的标题似乎是“ XYZ项目的成本估算增加”或“成本估算升至$（用您自己的天文数字超过原始估算的方式填写）”。为什么这些计算对于负责估计清理工作的金融专业人员和计划人员仍然是一个持续的挑战？一个主要的原因是，估算此类项目的实际成本非常困难，而且不确定性很高。简而言之，专业人员需要的是“更好的捕鼠器”。为了开发更好的“捕鼠器”，我们评估了在进行此类估算时采用的当前做法。根据美国国防部和美国陆军部的说法，可以单独或组合使用三种基本的成本估算技术：类比，累积和参数化建模。每种方法已在整个行业中使用，并取得了不同程度的成功。但是，根据美国国防部/美国国防部，目前尚没有用于估算沉积物处理项目成本的参数化模型的实际示例。我们创建了可行的参数模型，以协助管理人员和决策者制定适当的成本估算，以用于处理和处置挖泥的材料，这些材料可用于计划和预算目的，与适当的利益相关者进行沟通并为高级管理层提供指导。通过提供整个修复时间范围内的累积成本，这种多变量财务模型可以对单个站点或站点组合进行成本估算（同时仍允许单个站点规范）。它考虑了“假设情况”，并提供了上述成本估算的数字和图形描述。

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