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首页> 外文期刊>International Journal of Statistics and Applications >Threshold Excess Analysis of Ikeja Monthly Rainfall in Nigeria
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Threshold Excess Analysis of Ikeja Monthly Rainfall in Nigeria

机译：尼日利亚Ikeja每月降雨量的阈值过量分析

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Ikeja in Lagos State was one of the major towns in Nigeria that was struck by the 2012 flooding with a devastating economic effect. However, among other major causes of this natural disaster was extreme rainfall. This paper therefore, focuses on extreme value analysis of the Ikeja monthly rainfall (January, 1980 to December, 2012) obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) official website. The set of data shows a very significant periodicity and strong departure from normality. The Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution was adequately fitted to the threshold excesses of the seasonally differenced rainfall data, the shape parameter is not significantly different from zero, and the diagnostic plots did not give any doubt on the goodness of fit of the fitted GP model. The results obtained could serve as a guide to stakeholders in weather and climatic management.
机译：拉各斯州的伊凯贾（Ikeja）是尼日利亚的主要城镇之一，该镇在2012年的洪灾中遭受了毁灭性的经济影响。但是，造成这种自然灾害的其他主要原因是极端降雨。因此，本文着重于从尼日利亚中央银行（CBN）官方网站获得的Ikeja月降雨量（1980年1月至2012年12月）的极值分析。这组数据显示出非常重要的周期性，并且与正常情况有很大差异。通用帕累托（GP）分布已完全适合季节性差异降雨数据的阈值过剩，形状参数没有明显不同于零的特征，并且诊断图对拟合GP模型的拟合优度没有任何疑问。 。获得的结果可以作为利益相关者在天气和气候管理方面的指南。

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