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Self-Exciting Point Process to Study the Evolution of the Attack Terrorism

机译：自激点过程研究攻击性恐怖主义的演变

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摘要

The terrorism attack became the first security world problem in the 21st century which the most terrorist attacks threaten civilians. The aim objective of this article is to develop the self-exciting point process to show that the terrorist attacks often follow a general pattern that can be modeled to study the evolution of the terrorism attack by using a statistical model especially the Hawkes process. The basic idea of this process is that the some events don’t occur independently; when a certain event happens. This model is a unique statistical model in literature which it is a special class of point process where the background rate is non-stationary.
机译：恐怖主义袭击成为21世纪最严重的安全威胁，威胁最大的是平民。本文的目的是开发自激点过程，以表明恐怖袭击通常遵循一种通用模式，可以通过使用统计模型（尤其是霍克斯过程）对恐怖主义袭击的演变进行建模。此过程的基本思想是，某些事件不会独立发生;当某个事件发生时。该模型是文献中独特的统计模型，是背景速率不稳定的一类特殊的点过程。

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