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Comparative Model Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Ghana

机译:加纳道路交通事故比较模型分析

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Road traffic accidents of varying degrees that have occurred in Ghana both in the past and present have resulted in several road fatalities. These has led to the loss of lives, property, broken homes, and as well as leaving behind shattered families and communities, among others despite the indispensable role the road transport sector plays in the economy. This paper sort to explore the most parsimonious and robust linear model for the estimation and forecasting road traffic accidents statistically. This was achieved through the examination of the relationship between road traffic accidents, human and vehicular population in Ghana using linear regression models. Empirical results showed the existence of significant positive relationship between road traffic accidents, vehicle population and human population, with respective correlation coefficients as R1=0.855, R2=0.853, and R3=0.855 indicating a very strong positive association between them. The simple linear regression model between road traffic accidents and vehicle population was adjudged the most robust and parsimonious model based on model diagnostics (residual analysis with plots) coupled with tests of hypothesis. The paper therefore concludes that vehicular population is a very key variable that should not be left out in the policy formulation that would deal with curbing road traffic accidents in Ghana based on available statistics and results.
机译:过去和现在在加纳发生的不同程度的道路交通事故均导致多人死亡。尽管公路运输部门在经济中起着不可或缺的作用,但这些导致了生命,财产的损失,房屋的破损以及遗留下破碎的家庭和社区。本文旨在探索最简约,最鲁棒的线性模型,以统计方式估算和预测道路交通事故。这是通过使用线性回归模型检查加纳的道路交通事故,人口与车辆之间的关系来实现的。实证结果表明,道路交通事故,车辆人口与人口之间存在显着的正相关关系,相关系数分别为R1 = 0.855,R2 = 0.853和R3 = 0.855,表明二者之间具有很强的正相关性。基于模型诊断(带有残差分析的残差分析)和假设检验,确定了道路交通事故和车辆人口之间的简单线性回归模型,是最可靠,最简洁的模型。因此,本文得出的结论是,根据可得的统计数据和结果,在控制加纳道路交通事故的政策制定中,机动车人口是一个非常重要的变量,不应忽略。

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