• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Investigative Genetics >Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications
【24h】

Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

机译：使用先验赔率来识别失踪人员

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Identification of missing persons from mass disasters is based on evaluation of a number of variables and observations regarding the combination of features derived from these variables. DNA typing now is playing a more prominent role in the identification of human remains, and particularly so for highly decomposed and fragmented remains. The strength of genetic associations, by either direct or kinship analyses, is often quantified by calculating a likelihood ratio. The likelihood ratio can be multiplied by prior odds based on nongenetic evidence to calculate the posterior odds, that is, by applying Bayes' Theorem, to arrive at a probability of identity. For the identification of human remains, the path creating the set and intersection of variables that contribute to the prior odds needs to be appreciated and well defined. Other than considering the total number of missing persons, the forensic DNA community has been silent on specifying the elements of prior odds computations. The variables include the number of missing individuals, eyewitness accounts, anthropological features, demographics and other identifying characteristics. The assumptions, supporting data and reasoning that are used to establish a prior probability that will be combined with the genetic data need to be considered and justified. Otherwise, data may be unintentionally or intentionally manipulated to achieve a probability of identity that cannot be supported and can thus misrepresent the uncertainty with associations. The forensic DNA community needs to develop guidelines for objectively computing prior odds.
机译：大规模灾难中失踪人员的识别是基于对多个变量的评估以及有关从这些变量得出的特征组合的观察结果。现在，DNA分型在鉴定人类遗体中起着更加重要的作用，尤其是对于高度分解和破碎的遗体。通过直接或亲缘关系分析，遗传关联的强度通常通过计算似然比来量化。可以基于非遗传证据将似然比乘以先验赔率，以计算后验赔率，即通过应用贝叶斯定理得出同一概率。为了识别人类遗体，需要理解并明确定义创建有助于先验赔率的变量的集合和交集的路径。除了考虑失踪人员的总数外，法医DNA团体一直未指定先验赔率计算的要素。这些变量包括失踪人员的数量，目击者的陈述，人类学特征，人口统计学和其他识别特征。需要考虑和证明用于建立先验概率并将与遗传数据结合的假设，支持数据和推理。否则，可能会无意或有意地操纵数据以获得无法支持的身份概率，从而可能用关联来歪曲不确定性。法医DNA社区需要制定客观计算先验赔率的指南。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号