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Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: rate of change and patchiness of impacts

机译：评估气候变化适应方案的关键景观生态指标：变化率和影响的零散性

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Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system‐wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In pi?on‐juniper woodland die‐offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die‐offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die‐off suggests that decision‐makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system‐wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In sum, understanding how the rate of change and degree of patchiness of change will constrain adaptive options is a critical consideration in preparing for climate change.
机译：在不断变化的气候中，制定战略以帮助利益相关者适应生态系统及其服务的变化至关重要。在北美西部，积雪和河流流量的减少正在引起生态系统和服务的相对逐渐，均匀（系统范围内）的变化。此外，气候多变性的增加也加速了火灾，洪水和干旱等突发性和零星性干扰的发生。本文认为，景观生态学中经常考虑的两个关键变量-变化率和变化的程度-可以帮助制定气候变化适应策略。我们以美国西南部和墨西哥西北部的“边界”地区为例。在2000年代美国西南部的松树林死亡中，生态系统服务在该系统的某些部分突然崩溃，而在其他位置则不受影响。死亡的确切时间和地点尚不确定。另一方面，较慢的，均匀的变化，例如科罗拉多河三角洲的预期供水量下降，可能会影响整个生态系统，三角洲各地的生态系统服务都可能发生变化，所有用户都可能受到影响。以树木消亡为例的较快的，零散的气候变化的迅速性和空间异质性表明，决策者和地方利益相关者将明智地在罗尔斯式的“无知之幕”下运作，并实施使生态系统服务使用者能够公平地使用的适应策略在实际的生态系统发生变化之前，承担生态系统服务突然丧失的风险。另一方面，以科罗拉多河三角洲为例，在对生态系统服务产生较慢，同质的，全系统的影响的情况下，可以在变化开始后实施适应策略，但需要从根本上重新考虑生态系统和服务的方式使用和重视。总之，了解变化的速度和变化的程度将如何限制适应性选择是应对气候变化的关键考虑因素。

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