• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Emerging themes in epidemiology >The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective
【24h】

The Bradford Hill considerations on causality: a counterfactual perspective

机译：布拉德福德·希尔关于因果关系的考虑：反事实观点

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Bradford Hill's considerations published in 1965 had an enormous influence on attempts to separate causal from non-causal explanations of observed associations. These considerations were often applied as a checklist of criteria, although they were by no means intended to be used in this way by Hill himself. Hill, however, avoided defining explicitly what he meant by "causal effect". This paper provides a fresh point of view on Hill's considerations from the perspective of counterfactual causality. I argue that counterfactual arguments strongly contribute to the question of when to apply the Hill considerations. Some of the considerations, however, involve many counterfactuals in a broader causal system, and their heuristic value decreases as the complexity of a system increases; the danger of misapplying them can be high. The impacts of these insights for study design and data analysis are discussed. The key analysis tool to assess the applicability of Hill's considerations is multiple bias modelling (Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis); these methods should be used much more frequently.
机译：布拉德福德·希尔（Bradford Hill）于1965年发表的观点对试图将因果关系与非因果关系解释分开的尝试产生了巨大影响。这些考虑因素通常被用作标准检查清单，尽管希尔本人绝不打算将这些考虑因素用于这种方式。但是，希尔避免明确定义他所说的“因果效应”。本文从反事实因果关系的角度为希尔的考虑提供了新的观点。我认为反事实的论点极大地影响了何时应用希尔考虑因素。但是，某些考虑因素涉及更广泛的因果系统中的许多反事实，并且随着系统复杂性的增加，它们的启发式价值也随之降低。错误使用它们的危险可能很高。讨论了这些见解对研究设计和数据分析的影响。评估希尔的适用性的关键分析工具是多重偏差建模（贝叶斯方法和蒙特卡罗敏感性分析）;这些方法应该更频繁地使用。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号