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Causal criteria and counterfactuals; nothing more (or less) than scientific common sense

机译:因果标准和反事实;只是(或少于)科学常识

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Two persistent myths in epidemiology are that we can use a list of "causal criteria" to provide an algorithmic approach to inferring causation and that a modern "counterfactual model" can assist in the same endeavor. We argue that these are neither criteria nor a model, but that lists of causal considerations and formalizations of the counterfactual definition of causation are nevertheless useful tools for promoting scientific thinking. They set us on the path to the common sense of scientific inquiry, including testing hypotheses (really putting them to a test, not just calculating simplistic statistics), responding to the Duhem-Quine problem, and avoiding many common errors. Austin Bradford Hill's famous considerations are thus both over-interpreted by those who would use them as criteria and under-appreciated by those who dismiss them as flawed. Similarly, formalizations of counterfactuals are under-appreciated as lessons in basic scientific thinking. The need for lessons in scientific common sense is great in epidemiology, which is taught largely as an engineering discipline and practiced largely as technical tasks, making attention to core principles of scientific inquiry woefully rare.
机译:流行病学上两个长期存在的神话是,我们可以使用“因果标准”列表来提供推断因果关系的算法方法,而现代的“反事实模型”可以帮助实现同样的目标。我们认为,这些既不是标准也不是模型,但是因果关系的清单和因果关系的反事实定义的形式化仍然是促进科学思考的有用工具。他们使我们走上了科学探究的常识之路,包括检验假设(真正地对它们进行检验,而不仅仅是计算简单的统计数据),应对Duhem-Quine问题以及避免许多常见错误。因此,奥斯丁·布拉德福德·希尔(Austin Bradford Hill)的著名考虑既被那些将其用作标准的人过度解释,又被那些视其为缺陷的人低估了。同样,反事实的形式化作为基础科学思维中的课程也没有得到足够的重视。在流行病学中,对具有科学常识性的课程的需求很大,这在很大程度上是作为一门工程学科来教授的,并且很大程度上是作为技术任务来实践的,因此很少关注科学探究的核心原理。

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