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Investigating carbon emission abatement long-term plan with the aim of energy system modeling; case study of Iran

机译：研究以能源系统建模为目标的减少碳排放的长期计划;伊朗的案例研究

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Increasing electric vehicles usage, as a promising solution for environmental issues, might have unexpected implications, since it entails some changes in different sectors and scales in energy system. In this respect, this research aims at investigating the long-term impacts of electric vehicles deployment on Iran's energy system. Accordingly, Iran's energy system was analyzed by LEAP model in demand, supply, and transmission sides for all fuels and two different scenarios. Existing policies with limited optimistic assumptions was investigated as "reference" scenario. Alternatively, the other scenario, "electric cars" scenario, is gradually for substitution of electric vehicles for 15% gasoline cars until 2030 and renewable energy sources have more contribution in electricity production. Finally, carbon dioxide emission was predicted and compared in both scenarios for 25 years later. Results indicate that with "electric cars" scenario at 2030, Iran would have by 9.2 % and 1.9% less Carbon Dioxide emissions in comparison to the "reference" scenario in the transportation sector and total system, respectively.
机译：作为解决环境问题的有前途的解决方案，增加电动汽车的使用量可能会带来意想不到的影响，因为这需要在能源系统的不同部门和规模上做出一些改变。在这方面，本研究旨在调查电动汽车的部署对伊朗能源系统的长期影响。因此，通过LEAP模型在所有燃料和两种不同情景的需求，供应和传输方面对伊朗的能源系统进行了分析。具有有限乐观假设的现有策略被调查为“参考”方案。另外，另一种“电动汽车”情景将逐步取代15％的汽油汽车，直到2030年，而可再生能源对电力生产的贡献更大。最后，预测了二氧化碳排放量，并在25年后将这两种情况进行了比较。结果表明，在“电动汽车”情景下，到2030年，与交通部门和整个系统的“参考情景”相比，伊朗的二氧化碳排放量分别减少9.2％和1.9％。

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