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Analysis of prediction models for wind energy characteristics, Case study: Karaj, Iran

机译：风能特征预测模型分析，案例研究：伊朗卡拉伊

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摘要

Iran is a country completely dependent on fossil fuel resources. In order to obtain a diversity of energy sources, it requires other resources, especially renewable energy. Utilization of wind energy appears to be one of the most ef?cient ways of achieving sustainable development. The quantification of wind potential is a pivotal and essential initial step while developing strategies for the development of wind energy. This study presents an investigation of the potential of wind power, using two methods—Weibull and Rayleigh—at Karaj, the center of Alborz province of Iran. The wind speed data for a three-hour time interval measured over a 10-year period (2004–2015) was used to calculate and estimate the wind power generation potential. After calculating the factors related to power density and wind energy, it was concluded that data fitting via Weibull distribution was partly better than the Rayleigh distribution function. The RMSE values of Weibull and Rayleigh were respectively 0.018 and 0.013, and R2 values of Weibull and Rayleigh were 0.95 and 0.97 in Karaj for the years 2004–2015. The wind rose charts of Karaj for the 2004–2015 period show that the most prevalent wind direction is NW (North-West). The wind power density obtained indicates the region is not completely suitable for large on-grid wind farms and related investments. But the region can be suitable for off-grid applications such as water pumping and irrigation, lighting, electric fan, battery charging, and, as hybrid, with other power sources.
机译：伊朗是一个完全依赖化石燃料资源的国家。为了获得多种能源，它需要其他资源，尤其是可再生能源。利用风能似乎是实现可持续发展的最有效方法之一。在开发风能开发策略时，风能的量化是关键且必不可少的初始步骤。这项研究利用位于魏尔布尔和瑞利的两种方法，对位于伊朗阿尔伯兹省中部的卡拉伊市进行了风力发电潜力的调查。在十年（2004-2015年）的三个小时间隔内测得的风速数据用于计算和估算风力发电潜力。在计算了与功率密度和风能有关的因素后，得出的结论是，通过威布尔分布进行的数据拟合在某种程度上优于瑞利分布函数。 2004–2015年，卡拉伊的Weibull和Rayleigh的RMSE值分别为0.018和0.013，Weibull和Rayleigh的R2值分别为0.95和0.97。卡拉伊（Karaj）2004-2015年的风向图显示，最普遍的风向是NW（西北）。获得的风能密度表明该地区并不完全适合大型并网风电场和相关投资。但该地区可能适合离网应用，例如抽水和灌溉，照明，电风扇，电池充电，以及与其他电源混合使用。

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