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Population attributable fraction: comparison of two mathematical procedures to estimate the annual attributable number of deaths

机译：人口归因分数：两种数学程序的比较，以估计每年的死亡人数

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Objective The purpose of this paper was to compare two mathematical procedures to estimate the annual attributable number of deaths (the Allison et al procedure and the Mokdad et al procedure), and derive a new procedure that combines the best aspects of both procedures. The new procedure calculates attributable number of deaths along a continuum (i.e. for each unit of exposure), and allows for one or more neutral (neither exposed nor nonexposed) exposure categories. Methods Mathematical derivations and real datasets were used to demonstrate the theoretical relationship and practical differences between the two procedures. Results of the comparison were used to develop a new procedure that combines the best features of both. Findings The Allison procedure is complex because it directly estimates the number of attributable deaths. This necessitates calculation of probabilities of death. The Mokdad procedure is simpler because it estimates the number of attributable deaths indirectly through population attributable fractions. The probabilities of death cancel out in the numerator and denominator of the fractions. However, the Mokdad procedure is not applicable when a neutral exposure category exists. Conclusion By combining the innovation of the Allison procedure (allowing for a neutral category) and the simplicity of the Mokdad procedure (using population attributable fractions), this paper proposes a new procedure to calculate attributable numbers of death.
机译：目的本文的目的是比较两种数学程序，以估计每年的死亡人数（Allison等人的程序和Mokdad等人的程序），并得出一种结合了这两种程序的最佳方面的新程序。新程序可计算连续区域（即每个暴露单位）的可归因死亡人数，并允许一个或多个中性（既不暴露也不暴露）暴露类别。方法使用数学推导和真实数据集来证明这两种方法之间的理论关系和实际差异。比较的结果用于开发一种结合了两者最佳功能的新程序。结果Allison程序很复杂，因为它直接估计可归因的死亡人数。这需要计算死亡概率。 Mokdad程序更简单，因为它通过人口归因分数间接估算归因于死亡的人数。死亡的概率在分数的分子和分母中抵消。但是，如果存在中性暴露类别，则Mokdad程序不适用。结论通过结合Allison程序的创新（允许使用中性类别）和Mokdad程序的简单性（使用人口归因分数），本文提出了一种新的方法来计算归因于死亡的人数。

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