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首页> 外文期刊>Preventive Medicine: An International Journal Devoted to Practice and Theory >How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes.
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How many deaths are attributable to smoking in the United States? Comparison of methods for estimating smoking-attributable mortality when smoking prevalence changes.

机译：在美国有多少人死于吸烟？吸烟流行率变化时估计吸烟归因死亡率的方法比较。

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BACKGROUND: The number of smoking-attributable deaths is commonly estimated using current and former smoking prevalences or lung cancer mortality as an indirect metric of cumulative population smoking. Neither method accounts for differences in the timing with which relative risks (RRs) for different diseases change following smoking initiation and cessation. We aimed to develop a method to account for time-dependent RRs. METHODS: We used birth cohort lung cancer mortality and its change over time to characterize time-varying cumulative smoking exposure. We analyzed data from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II to estimate RRs for disease-specific mortality associated with current and former smoking, and change in RRs over time after cessation. RESULTS: When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 254,700 male and 227,000 female deaths were attributed to smoking in the US in 2005. A modified method in which RRs for different diseases decreased at different rates after cessation yielded similar but slightly lower estimates [251,900 (male) and 221,100 (female)]. The lowest estimates resulted from the method based on smoking prevalence [225,800 (male) and 163,700 (female)]. CONCLUSIONS: Although all methods estimated a large number of smoking attributable deaths, future efforts should account for temporal changes in smoking prevalence and in accumulation/reversibility of disease-specific risks.
机译：背景：可归因于吸烟的死亡人数通常使用当前和过去的吸烟率或肺癌死亡率作为累积人口吸烟的间接指标进行估算。两种方法都不能解释吸烟引发和戒烟后不同疾病相对风险（RRs）变化的时间差异。我们旨在开发一种方法来解决与时间相关的RR。方法：我们使用出生队列肺癌死亡率及其随时间的变化来表征随时间变化的累积吸烟暴露。我们分析了来自美国癌症协会癌症预防研究II的数据，以估算与当前和以前吸烟相关的疾病特异性死亡率的RR，以及戒烟后随时间变化的RR。结果：当使用肺癌来衡量累积吸烟量时，2005年美国有254,700例男性和227,000例女性死亡是由吸烟引起的。一种改良的方法是，戒烟后不同疾病的RRs以不同的速率降低，得出的估计值相似但略低[251,900（男）和221,100（女）]。最低估计数是基于吸烟率的方法得出的[225,800（男性）和163,700（女性）]。结论：尽管所有方法均估计大量吸烟归因于死亡，但未来的努力应考虑吸烟流行的时间变化以及特定疾病风险的累积/可逆性。

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