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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Business and Management >The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Yield of Loan Portfolio of Microfinance Institutions in Macedonia
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The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Yield of Loan Portfolio of Microfinance Institutions in Macedonia

机译：宏观经济因素对马其顿小额信贷机构贷款组合收益的影响

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The profitability of financial institutions, especially those who lend to small and medium enterprises, is studied by many authors, attempting to find and analyze the factors that affect the portfolio of financial institutions. This research paper analyzes the impact of different macroeconomic factors on the profitability of microfinance institutions in Macedonia. Relying on some economic practices and theory, we have set our hypothesis, which says that inflation rates, GDP, interest rates and credits, show their significant effects and are positively correlated with the bank portfolio (microfinance institutions, MFI-s). The results are derived through multiple regressions using the OLS method, based on the official data collected by some institutions, such as the Central Bank of Macedonia, the World Bank, domestic commercial banks and private saving houses.Our objective is to find which model will display the most accurate resu thus we analyze three econometric models: the linear model, the exponential model without restriction and the exponential model with restriction (partial ratio transformation). All results confirm the null hypothesis about the important and positive impact of macroeconomic indicators, through regression analysis, while the F test proves that the exponential model with restriction of GDP (ratio transformation) shows the most exact result for this study. Part of this research paper is the matrix which shows a positive correlation of variables considered on the model. Our results are compared with other studies from different countries and authors, confirming the null hypothesis about Macedonia. We can confirm that our results about Macedonia do not differ much from the results of countries at the same stage of economic development. We can see a significant relation between these variables, but the impact is not large enough and this effect is based on bank policies that avoid macroeconomic risks; therefore, in case of facing with inflation, banks respond by increasing the effective interest rate.
机译：许多作者都研究了金融机构，尤其是向中小企业贷款的金融机构的盈利能力，试图寻找和分析影响金融机构投资组合的因素。本文研究了不同的宏观经济因素对马其顿小额信贷机构盈利能力的影响。依靠某些经济实践和理论，我们设定了假设，即通货膨胀率，GDP，利率和信贷显示出显着的影响，并与银行投资组合（小额信贷机构，MFI-s）成正相关。该结果是基于OLS方法的多元回归得出的，基于一些机构收集的官方数据，例如马其顿中央银行，世界银行，国内商业银行​​和私人储蓄所。显示最准确的结果;因此，我们分析了三种计量经济学模型：线性模型，无约束的指数模型和有约束的指数模型（偏比转换）。所有结果都通过回归分析证实了有关宏观经济指标的重要和积极影响的零假设，而F检验证明了受GDP限制（比率转换）的指数模型显示了该研究的最准确结果。该研究论文的一部分是矩阵，该矩阵显示了模型中考虑的变量的正相关。我们的结果与来自不同国家和作者的其他研究进行了比较，证实了关于马其顿的零假设。我们可以证实，我们对马其顿的研究结果与处于经济发展同一阶段的国家的研究结果相差无几。我们可以看到这些变量之间存在显着的关系，但是影响不够大，并且这种影响是基于避免宏观经济风险的银行政策;因此，在面对通货膨胀的情况下，银行通过提高实际利率来应对。

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