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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security
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Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

机译：惊喜成为新常态–对能源安全的影响

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Abstract We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities - broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.
机译：摘要我们生活在一个通过数字化和全球化而日益相互联系，加剧环境条件，严峻的经济挑战，财富分配不均和地缘政治危机的世界。世界是一个复杂的系统，其子系统之间的快速变化给任何预期变化和塑造转型过程的努力都增加了压力。惊喜是变化的内在方面，尤其是当它以高度波动性，不确定性，复杂性，歧义性（VUCA）或以Ziauddin Sardar所描述的正常后状态加速发展时。诸如AI和可再生能源系统之类的新兴技术增加了社会的复杂性，因此也增加了VUCA的世界和后常态。在有远见的视野中，视野扫描主要集中于可能的甚至可预测的无意外发展。应该更加强调对通配符和黑天鹅的系统预期，以及对微弱信号的分析。有远见的人也应该关注不连续性-更广泛的现象和发展，而不是单个事件。能源是一个复杂的问题。没有能源，就没有生命，无论是生物还是经济。考虑到当前能源系统的巨大生态和社会成本，显然需要一种新的无排放，经济高效且民主化的能源系统。在四种转型的新碳能源情景中，可以设想实现100％可再生能源的能源转型。能源日益成为社会乃至文化问题，尤其是安全问题。关于能源安全，各种突发事件和突发事件可能起主要作用。新能源系统本身以及其他新技术将世界推向未知，不连续的方向。因此，我们探讨了这些转型的社会能源情景的弹性，抗脆弱性和不连续性。提出了对场景进行测试的期货行业的结果。随着世界越来越多地寻求向以可再生能源为基础的社会发展，人们探索了能源安全令人惊讶的含义。

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