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Schelling, von Neumann, and the Event that Didn’t Occur

机译：谢林，冯·诺依曼和未发生的事件

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Thomas Schelling was recognized by the Nobel Prize committee as a pioneer in the application of game theory and rational choice analysis to problems of politics and international relations. However, although he makes frequent references in his writings to this approach, his main explorations and insights depend upon and require acknowledgment of its limitations. One of his principal concerns was how a country could engage in successful deterrence. If the behavioral assumptions that commonly underpin game theory are taken seriously and applied consistently, however, nuclear adversaries are almost certain to engage in devastating conflict, as John von Neumann forcefully asserted. The history of the last half century falsified von Neumann’s prediction, and the “event that didn’t occur” formed the subject of Schelling’s Nobel lecture. The answer to the question “why?” is the central concern of this paper.
机译：托马斯·谢林（Thomas Schelling）被诺贝尔奖委员会认可为将博弈论和理性选择分析应用于政治和国际关系问题的先驱。然而，尽管他在其著作中经常提及这种方法，但他的主要探索和见识取决于并需要认识到其局限性。他主要关注的问题之一是一个国家如何进行成功的威慑。但是，如果认真对待并普遍采用通常作为博弈论基础的行为假设，那么核对手几乎可以肯定会发生毁灭性冲突，正如约翰·冯·诺伊曼（John von Neumann）强有力地断言的那样。上半个世纪的历史证伪了冯·诺依曼（von Neumann）的预言，而“未发生的事件”成为了谢林·诺贝尔（Schelling Nobel）演讲的主题。问题“为什么？”的答案是本文的重点。

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