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Prediction of Muddy Floods Using High-Resolution Radar Precipitation Forecasts and Physically-Based Erosion Modeling in Agricultural Landscapes

机译：利用高分辨率雷达降水预报和基于物理的侵蚀模型对农业景观进行泥泞洪水预测

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The monitoring, modeling, and prediction of storm events and accompanying heavy rain is crucial for intensively used agricultural landscapes and its settlements and transport infrastructure. In Saxony, Germany, repeated and numerous storm events triggered muddy floods from arable fields in May 2016. They caused severe devastation to settlements and transport infrastructure. This interdisciplinary approach investigates three muddy floods, which developed on silty soils of loess origin tending to soil surface sealing. To achieve this, the study focuses on the test of a historical forecast modeling of three muddy floods in ungauged agricultural landscapes. Therefore, this approach firstly illustrates the reconstruction of the muddy floods, which was performed by high-resolution radar precipitation data, physically-based erosion modeling, and the qualitative validation by unmanned aerial vehicle-based orthophotos. Subsequently, historical radar precipitation forecasts served as input data for the physically-based erosion model to test the forecast modeling retrospectively. The model results indicate a possible warning for two of the three muddy floods. This method of a historical forecast modeling of muddy floods seems particularly promising. Naturally, the data series of three muddy floods should be extended to more reliable data and statistical statements. Finally, this approach assesses the feasibility of a real-time muddy flood early warning system in ungauged agricultural landscapes by high-resolution radar precipitation forecasts and physically-based erosion modeling.
机译：风暴事件和随之而来的大雨的监视，建模和预测对于密集使用的农业景观及其定居和运输基础设施至关重要。 2016年5月，在德国萨克森州，反复发生的许多风暴事件引发了耕地的泥泞洪灾。它们对定居点和运输基础设施造成了严重破坏。这种跨学科的方法研究了三种泥泞的洪水，它们是在黄土起源的粉质土壤上发展的，趋于土壤表面封闭。为了实现这一目标，本研究着重于对未开垦的农业景观中的三场泥泞洪水的历史预测模型进行测试。因此，该方法首先说明了泥泞洪水的重建，该重建是通过高分辨率雷达降水数据，基于物理的侵蚀模型以及基于无人机的正射影像的定性验证来进行的。随后，历史雷达降水预报作为基于物理的侵蚀模型的输入数据，以追溯检验该预报模型。模型结果表明可能对三处泥泞洪水中的两处发出警告。这种用泥泞洪水进行历史预测建模的方法似乎特别有前途。自然，三个泥泞洪水的数据系列应该扩展到更可靠的数据和统计报表。最后，该方法通过高分辨率雷达降水预报和基于物理的侵蚀模型评估了在未耕作的农业景观中实时泥泞洪水预警系统的可行性。

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