...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Geosciences >Hybrid GMPEs for Region-Specific PSHA in Southern Italy
【24h】

Hybrid GMPEs for Region-Specific PSHA in Southern Italy

机译：用于意大利南部特定地区PSHA的混合GMPE

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This paper describes the main findings of the project HYPSTHER (HYbrid ground motion prediction equations for PSha purposes: the study case of souTHERn Italy; supported by the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology). The goal of the project is to develop a methodological approach to retrieve hybrid Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) based on integration of recorded and synthetic data. This methodology was applied to the study area of southern Italy, focusing on the southern Calabria and Sicily regions. The target area was chosen due to the expected high seismic hazard levels, despite the low seismic activity in recent decades. In addition, along the coast of the study area, there are many critical infrastructures, such as chemical plants, refineries, and large ports, which strongly increase the risk of technological accidents induced by earthquakes. Through the synthetic data, the predictions of the hybrid GMPEs have been improved under near-field conditions, with respect to empirical models for moderate to large earthquakes. Attenuation at distances greater than 50 km is instead controlled by the empirical data, because attenuation is faster with distance. The aleatory variability of the hybrid models has strong impact on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as it is lower than the sigma of the empirical GMPEs. The use of the hybrid GMPEs specific for the study area can produce remarkable reductions in hazard levels for long-return periods, mainly due to changes in median predictions and reduction of the aleatory variability.
机译：本文介绍了HYPSTHER项目（用于PSha的混合地面运动预测方程：SouTHERn Italy的研究案例;由意大利地球物理与火山学研究所支持）的主要发现。该项目的目标是开发一种基于记录和合成数据集成来检索混合地面运动预测方程（GMPE）的方法学方法。这种方法被应用于意大利南部的研究区域，重点是南部卡拉布里亚和西西里岛地区。尽管近几十年来地震活动较少，但由于预期的高地震危险等级选择了目标区域。此外，在研究区域的沿海，有许多重要的基础设施，例如化工厂，炼油厂和大型港口，这些设施大大增加了地震引发技术事故的风险。通过综合数据，相对于中到大地震的经验模型，混合GMPEs的预测在近场条件下得到了改善。相反，大于50 km的距离处的衰减由经验数据控制，因为衰减随距离而变快。混合模型的偶然变异性对概率地震危险性评估有很大影响，因为它低于经验GMPE的sigma。对于研究区域特定的混合GMPE的使用可以在长期回报期间显着降低危害水平，这主要是由于中位数预测的变化和偶然性的降低。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号