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首页> 外文期刊>Global Ecology and Conservation >Combining modeling tools to identify conservation priority areas: A case study of the last large-bodied avian frugivore in the Atlantic Forest
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Combining modeling tools to identify conservation priority areas: A case study of the last large-bodied avian frugivore in the Atlantic Forest

机译：结合建模工具确定保护重点领域：以大西洋森林中最后一个大型鸟类食肉动物为例

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Applicability of modeling tools to tackle conservation problems is key for conservation planning. However, modeling papers regarding real-world conservation issues are scarce. Here, we combined two modeling tools to identify priority areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, focusing on the last large-bodied frugivorous bird in the region, the red-billed curassow ( Crax blumenbachii ). We used population viability analysis (PVA) to determine (1) the minimum viable population size under different hunting scenarios; and (2) the minimum critical forest patch size required to maintain viable populations. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify remnants that retain suitable environmental conditions to ensure the long-term persistence of this species. We overlapped the outputs from PVA and ENM models to identify priority areas for curassows. Under our best-case scenario, 56 individuals would suffice to maintain a viable population and 71 forest patches located within the species' known range are above the critical size of 3141?ha. In the worst-case scenario, at least 138 individuals would be required to maintain a viable population in forest patches larger than 9500?ha, corresponding to only 20 Atlantic Forest fragments within the species range. Among these, 17 presented median habitat suitability values higher than 0.70, eight of which were selected as priority areas for law enforcement and nine as priority areas for reintroduction. We encourage conservation biologists and land managers to combine modeling tools which can be guided by our conservation planning framework. This approach is promising to inform long-term conservation planning of a flagship species and its entire ecosystem.
机译：建模工具对解决保护问题的适用性是保护规划的关键。但是，关于现实世界保护问题的模型论文很少。在这里，我们结合了两个建模工具来识别巴西大西洋森林中的优先区域，重点关注该地区最后一只大型食肉性鸟类，即红嘴curassow（Crax blumenbachii）。我们使用种群生存力分析（PVA）确定（1）在不同狩猎场景下的最小生存种群数量; （2）维持生存种群所需的最小关键森林斑块大小。我们使用生态位模型（ENM）来识别保留适当环境条件的残迹，以确保该物种的长期持久性。我们将PVA和ENM模型的输出进行了重叠，以确定了curassows的优先领域。在我们的最佳情况下，有56个个体足以维持种群的生存，而位于该物种已知范围内的71个森林斑块则超过了3141公顷的临界面积。在最坏的情况下，将需要至少138个人才能在大于9500？ha的森林斑块中维持生存种群，相当于该物种范围内仅20个大西洋森林碎片。其中，有17个栖息地的中位适宜性值高于0.70，其中八个被选为执法重点领域，九个被选为再引进重点领域。我们鼓励保护生物学家和土地管理人员结合建模工具，这些工具可以在我们的保护规划框架的指导下进行。这种方法有望为旗舰物种及其整个生态系统的长期保护规划提供依据。

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