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首页> 外文期刊>Folia Forestalia Polonica: Series A - Forestry >Assessment applicability of selected models of multiple discriminant analyses to forecast financial situation of Polish wood sector enterprises
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Assessment applicability of selected models of multiple discriminant analyses to forecast financial situation of Polish wood sector enterprises

机译：多种判别分析模型的评估适用性，以预测波兰木业企业的财务状况

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In the last three decades forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises has been an important and difficult problem, used as an impulse for many research projects (Ribeiro et al. 2012). At present many methods of bankruptcy prediction are available. In view of the specific character of economic activity in individual sectors, specialised methods adapted to a given branch of industry are being used increasingly often. For this reason an important scientific problem is related with the indication of an appropriate model or group of models to prepare forecasts for a given branch of industry. Thus research has been conducted to select an appropriate model of Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), best adapted to forecasting changes in the wood industry. This study analyses 10 prediction models popular in Poland. Effectiveness of the model proposed by Jagie??o, developed for all industrial enterprises, may be labelled accidental. That model is not adapted to predict financial changes in wood sector companies in Poland.The generally known Altman model showed the greatest effectiveness in the identification of enterprises at risk of bankruptcy. However, that model was burdened with one of the greatest errors in the classification of healthy enterprises as sick. The best effectiveness in the identification of enterprises not threatened with bankruptcy was found for forecasts prepared using the Prusak 2 model. However, forecasts based on those models were characterised by erroneous classification of sick companies as healthy. The model best fit to predict the financial situation of Polish wood sector companies was the Poznań modelPz = 3.562 · X1 + 1.588 · X2 + 4.288 · X3 + 6.719 · X4 - 2.368where:X1 - net income / total assets;X2 - (current assets - stock) / current liabilities;X3 - fixed capital / total assetsX4 - income from sales / sales revenue).
机译：在过去的三十年中，对企业破产的预测一直是一个重要而困难的问题，被许多研究项目所利用（Ribeiro等，2012）。目前，有许多破产预测方法可用。考虑到各个部门经济活动的特殊性，越来越多地使用适合于特定行业分支的专门方法。因此，一个重要的科学问题与适当模型或模型组的指示有关，以准备给定行业的预测。因此，已经进行了研究以选择最适合预测木材行业变化的多重判别分析（MDA）模型。本研究分析了波兰流行的10种预测模型。 Jagie？o为所有工业企业开发的模型的有效性可能被贴上了偶然的标签。该模型不适用于预测波兰木材行业公司的财务变化。众所周知的奥特曼模型在识别有破产风险的企业中显示出最大的有效性。但是，该模型承受着将健康企业分类为病态的最大错误之一。对于使用Prusak 2模型准备的预测，发现在识别未遭受破产威胁的企业方面的最佳效果。但是，基于这些模型的预测的特征是将病假公司分类为健康公司。最适合预测波兰木材部门公司财务状况的模型是Poznań模型Pz = 3.562·X 1 + 1.588·X 2 + 4.288·X 3 + 6.719·X 4 -2.368其中：X 1 -净收入/总资产; X 2 -（流动资产-股票）/流动负债; X 3 -固定资本/总资产X 4 -销售收入/销售收入）。

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