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Simulation of Scots pine stand dynamics under climate change conditions in the Polish and Ukrainian parts of Roztocze

机译：Roztocze波兰和乌克兰部分气候变化条件下苏格兰松树的林分动态模拟

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The study was conducted in the Polish (Roztoczanski National Park) and Ukrainian (Rava-Rus’ka Landscape Reserve and Yavorivskyi National Park) parts of the Roztocze region. In each of these locations three research areas were established in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands under similar ecological conditions. The purpose of this study was to carry out a survey of possible scenarios for pine stand dynamics in the Polish and Ukrainian parts of Roztocze using the FORKOME model. A control scenario was compared with four other climate change scenarios (warm dry and warm humid; cold dry and cold humid) for a period of covering the next 100 years. Using the control scenario, the FORKOME model predicted that for the next 100 years pine stands will dominate in terms of biomass and number of trees. The warm-dry and warm-humid climate scenarios resulted in slightly reduced biomass of pine stands. However pine would still maintain its dominance, although with a noticeable increase in beech and fir biomass. Nevertheless, in term of the number of trees during the second half of the simulation, it is beech and fir that dominate stand 1 in Roztoczanski National Park. Under the climate cooling scenario (cold dry and cold humid), the biomass of pine and spruce would increase during the next 100 years. Pine trees that would dominate in terms of their numbers, although the number of spruce individuals also tends to increase. The results presented in the paper indicate that the FORKOME model is very useful when investigating different climate changes scenarios in the Roztocze region.
机译：这项研究是在Roztocze地区的波兰人（Roztoczanski国家公园）和乌克兰人（Rava-Rus’ka风景保护区和Yavorivskyi国家公园）进行的。在这些地点中的每个地点，在生态条件相似的苏格兰松（Pinus sylvestris L.）林分中建立了三个研究区域。这项研究的目的是使用FORKOME模型对Roztocze波兰和乌克兰地区松树林动态的可能情景进行调查。在接下来的100年中，将控制情景与其他四个气候变化情景（温暖干燥和温暖潮湿;寒冷干燥和寒冷潮湿）进行了比较。利用控制情景，FORKOME模型预测，在接下来的100年中，松树林将在生物量和树木数量方面占主导地位。温暖干燥和温暖潮湿的气候情景导致松林生物量略有减少。然而，尽管山毛榉和冷杉生物量显着增加，松树仍将保持其主导地位。不过，就模拟后半段的树木数量而言，在Roztoczanski国家公园的1号展台上，山毛榉和冷杉占主导地位。在气候降温的情况下（冷干冷潮湿），松树和云杉的生物量将在未来100年内增加。尽管云杉个体的数量也趋于增加，但松树的数量将占主导地位。本文中提出的结果表明，FORKOME模型在调查Roztocze地区的不同气候变化情景时非常有用。

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