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A prognosis for the impact of climate change on beech stand dynamics in the Polish and Ukrainian Roztoche region

机译：气候变化对波兰和乌克兰Roztoche地区山毛榉林动态的影响的预后

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This study has been carried out in the Polish Roztoczański National Park and the Ukrainian Ravs’ke Roztochia Regional Landscape Park, both of which are part of the Roztoche region. In each of these two locations, representative study plots were established in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) stands occupying sites with similar environmental conditions. A longterm prognosis for the dynamics of the chosen beech stands were generated using the computer model FORKOME. The model was used to forecast stand developments for four climatic scenarios (warm-humid, warm-dry, cold-humid, cold-dry) covering a time span of 500 years. Our simulation results indicate that in the control scenario, beech stands were dominating and cyclical changes between beech and Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) may occur. In the scenarios with assumed climate warming, a decline of fir biomass and an increase of beech biomass, as compared to the control conditions, was noticed. In the scenario with assumed climate cooling, fir biomass increased for the duration of the investigated time span. To conclude, the application of the FORKOME model was found to be a useful tool for analyzing potential scenarios of long-term dynamics of beech stands in the Roztoche region in Poland and Ukraine.
机译：这项研究是在波兰的罗兹托赞斯基国家公园和乌克兰的Ravs’ke Roztochia地区风景公园中进行的，这两个公园都是Roztoche地区的一部分。在这两个位置中的每个位置，都在具有类似环境条件的山毛榉林（Fagus sylvatica L.）林分中建立了具有代表性的研究区。使用计算机模型FORKOME生成了所选榉木架动态的长期预测。该模型用于预测涵盖500年时间的四种气候情景（暖湿，暖干，冷湿，冷干）的展位发展。我们的模拟结果表明，在控制场景中，山毛榉林位居主导地位，山毛榉和银杉（Abies alba Mill。）之间可能发生周期性变化。在假定气候变暖的情况下，与控制条件相比，杉木生物量减少，山毛榉生物量增加。在假定气候变冷的情况下，冷杉生物量在调查的时间段内持续增加。总而言之，发现FORKOME模型的应用是分析波兰和乌克兰Roztoche地区山毛榉林长期动态潜在情况的有用工具。

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