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An Axiomatic Study of Scoring Rule Markets

机译:计分规则市场的公理研究

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Prediction markets are well-studied in the case where predictions are probabilities or expectations of future random variables. In 2008, Lambert, et al. proposed a generalization, which we call "scoring rule markets" (SRMs), in which traders predict the value of arbitrary statistics of the random variables, provided these statistics can be elicited by a scoring rule. Surprisingly, despite active recent work on prediction markets, there has not yet been any investigation into more general SRMs. To initiate such a study, we ask the following question: in what sense are SRMs "markets"? We classify SRMs according to several axioms that capture potentially desirable qualities of a market, such as the ability to freely exchange goods (contracts) for money. Not all SRMs satisfy our axioms: once a contract is purchased in any market for prediction the median of some variable, there will not necessarily be any way to sell that contract back, even in a very weak sense. Our main result is a characterization showing that slight generalizations of cost-function-based markets are the only markets to satisfy all of our axioms for finite-outcome random variables. Nonetheless, we find that several SRMs satisfy weaker versions of our axioms, including a novel share-based market mechanism for ratios of expected values.
机译:在预测是概率或对未来随机变量的期望的情况下,对预测市场进行充分研究。在2008年,Lambert等人。提出了一种概括,我们称为“评分规则市场”(SRM),其中交易者可以预测随机变量的任意统计数据的价值,但前提是可以通过评分规则得出这些统计数据。令人惊讶的是,尽管最近在预测市场上开展了积极的工作,但尚未对更通用的SRM进行任何调查。为了开展这样的研究,我们提出以下问题:SRM在什么意义上是“市场”?我们根据捕获市场潜在期望质量的几种公理对SRM进行分类,例如,自由交换商品(合同)以赚钱的能力。并非所有的SRM都符合我们的公理:一旦在任何市场上购买了合同以预测某个变量的中位数,即使从非常弱的意义上讲,也不一定有任何方法可以卖回该合同。我们的主要结果是一项表征,表明基于成本函数的市场略微泛化是满足有限结果随机变量所有公理的唯一市场。尽管如此,我们发现一些SRM可以满足我们公理的较弱版本,包括一种新颖的基于股票的预期价值比率的市场机制。

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