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Economic Valuation of Sea Level Rise Impacts on Agricultural Sector in Northern Governorates of the Nile Delta

机译：海平面上升对尼罗河三角洲北部省份农业部门的经济价值评估

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It is widely believed, according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections, that there will be an increase in the global average sea level of 0.18 cm to 0.59 cm through the twenty-first century. The coastal area of the Nile delta is considered to be one of the most vulnerable areas to Sea Level Rise (SLR) in the world. Where, the Nile Delta consists mostly of lowland areas which accommodate a significant proportion of the Egyptian agricultural and economic activities. SLR is expected to have a profound impact on the agricultural areas of the Nile Delta, through either inundation or higher levels and salinity of groundwater. Due to the prevailed vulnerability of the Nile delta and as guidance for decision and policy making, it is necessary to provide estimates of potential economic damage that can result from such SLR. The paper in hand intends to estimate the economic value of the agricultural areas, in the coastal governorates of the Nile Delta, susceptible to inundation due to SLR according to most recent SLR scenarios and to estimate the economic value of potential impacts of rising groundwater table, associated with SLR, on agricultural productivity by the year 2100. The results indicate that about 7.5%, 36.3%, and 44.0% of the total cultivated area of the coastal governorates of the Nile Delta (with a market value of 51.7, 196.6 and 232.6 billion EGP (Egyptian Pound)) will be susceptible to inundation under the different scenarios of SLR. Moreover, it was found that the future accumulative crop yield loss due to increasing groundwater level was estimated, using segmented linear regression, to be as much as 32.3 billion EGP. It is worth mentioning that these estimates do not include indirect impacts of higher levels of groundwater table, which may include loss of jobs and/or earnings, impacts on food supply and food security in the area.
机译：根据IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）的预测，人们普遍认为，到21世纪，全球平均海平面将增加0.18厘米至0.59厘米。尼罗河三角洲的沿海地区被认为是世界上海平面上升（SLR）最脆弱的地区之一。尼罗河三角洲主要由低地地区组成，这些地区可容纳埃及很大一部分的农业和经济活动。 SLR有望通过淹没地下水或地下水位和盐度更高而对尼罗河三角洲的农业地区产生深远影响。由于尼罗河三角洲地区普遍存在脆弱性，并且作为决策和政策制定的指导，因此有必要提供对此类SLR可能造成的潜在经济损失的估计。本文旨在根据最新的SLR情景估算尼罗河三角洲沿海省份因SLR容易被淹没的农业区的经济价值，并估算地下水位上升可能带来的影响的经济价值，与单反相机有关，到2100年农业生产率。结果表明，尼罗河三角洲沿海省份总耕地面积的大约7.5％，36.3％和44.0％（市场价值为51.7，在SLR的不同情况下，将有196.66亿埃及镑和2326亿埃及镑（埃及镑）容易被淹没。此外，使用分段线性回归估计，由于地下水位的增加，未来累积的农作物产量损失估计高达323亿埃镑。值得一提的是，这些估计数不包括较高地下水位的间接影响，其中可能包括工作和/或收入的损失，对该地区粮食供应和粮食安全的影响。

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