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Predictions of El Niño, La Niña and Record Low Chicago Temperature by Sunspot Number

机译：El Ni＆amp;＃241; o，La Ni＆amp;＃241; a的预测并通过太阳黑子数记录芝加哥最低温度

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摘要

The El Ni n o Index, defined as 4 intensities (very strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was positively correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events more often occur during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas is continuously increased, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number applies in the same way for La Niña. El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the South and Central Americas are warmer than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas. This results in the Central Pacific Current (CPC) flowing from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in EAC is warmer than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges. Chicago was selected as a case study for the relationship between extreme cold weather conditions and minimal sunspot number. Previous attemp t s at predicting weather patte r ns in Chicago have largely failed. The years of the record low temperatures in Chicago were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot number from 1873 to 2019. It is forecast that there may occur a weak La Niña in 2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019. It may be possible to predict very strong El Ni n o events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index ( R ~( 2 ) = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) ( R ~( 2 ) = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index ( R ~( 2 ) = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted ( R ~( 2 ) = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.
机译：El Ni n o指数定义为海洋Ni＆＃241指数（ONI）中的4种强度（非常强，强，中，弱），与每种强度下的平均黑子数均呈正相关。 La Ni指数定义为ONI的3个强度（强，中，弱），与1954年至2017年的平均黑子数呈负相关。看来非常频繁的El Ni＆o事件频繁发生在最大太阳黑子数期间，强La Ni事件发生在最小太阳黑子数期间。由于温室气体不断增加，因此建议最大黑子数是预测El Ni＆o的主要参数，而最小黑子数以相同的方式适用于La Ni＆a。根据南极洲和南美洲海山的海底火山活动，厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜事件可分为四种典型情况。由于南美和中美洲海山和山脊强烈的火山喷发，南美和中美洲的海表温度（SST）比东澳大利亚洋流（EAC）的海表温度高。由于热力从热源流向冷池的热力学第二定律，导致中央太平洋流（CPC）从东向西流动。相反，由于南极海山和山脊强烈的火山喷发，如果东非共同体中的海温比中/南美洲海山和山脊的海温高，则情况相反。选择芝加哥作为极端寒冷天气条件与最小太阳黑子数之间关系的案例研究。先前预测芝加哥天气模式的尝试在很大程度上失败了。芝加哥创纪录的低温年份与1873年至2019年的最小黑子数年份显着相关。据预测，2019年可能会出现La Ni＆a弱，而芝加哥的创纪录低温将在2000年出现。由于2019年最小黑子数的阶段，所以2020年1月。可能会预测最大黑子数年份为El Ni＆＃241; o Index（ R〜（2 ）= 0.7363）和加拉帕戈斯群岛热点（GHS）中强烈火山喷发的年份（ R〜（2）= 0.9939）。因此，预计在全球统一制度中强烈火山喷发的一年中将发生厄尔尼诺事件。在具有最低的黑子数的一年中，可以预期发生La Ni＆a指数（ R〜（2）= 0.9922）的强烈La Ni＆a事件。正如最近在2019年1月的情况一样，在最小太阳黑子数的一年中，芝加哥的创纪录低温也可以预测（ R〜（2）= 0.9995）。

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