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首页> 外文期刊>Revista Cubana de Estomatología >Prognosis of oral cancer incidence and mortality in the province of Ciego de Avila
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Prognosis of oral cancer incidence and mortality in the province of Ciego de Avila

机译：Ciego de Avila省口腔癌的发病率和死亡率的预后

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Introduction: prediction is a major practice in health care and research nowadays. The development achieved by dental services in Cuba has contributed to reduce the incidence of oral cancer, but it is still a reason for concern that a large number of people are diagnosed with this condition every year. In this context, time series analysis is crucially important for disease surveillance and prediction. Objective: analyze the behavior of oral cancer incidence and mortality series to generate a prognosis with a three-year prediction horizon in the province of Ciego de Avila. Methods: a time-series retrospective longitudinal descriptive study was conducted. An analysis was performed of the oral cancer time series, based on an annual incidence frequency for eight years (2007-2014) and a mortality rate for 12 years (2003-2014). Simple, fast, effective methods were used to obtain the prognosis: the least squares method and two-parameter exponential smoothing, which smooths local oscillations making it possible to appreciate the trend in the series. Use was made of the software EVIEWS 4.1. Results: regarding incidence, a prognosis was made of a point estimation of approximately 73 cases per year, with prediction intervals ranging between 59 and 87 for the next years. Regarding mortality, very narrow prediction intervals were obtained which range between 26 and 50, with a point estimation of approximately 37 deaths per year. Conclusions: behavior of the oral cancer incidence and mortality series in the province is on the increase, and it is estimated that it will continue to grow in the next three years
机译：简介：预测是当今医疗保健和研究的主要实践。古巴的牙科服务所取得的发展有助于减少口腔癌的发生率，但是仍然令人担忧的原因是，每年都有大量人被诊断出患有这种疾病。在这种情况下，时间序列分析对于疾病的监测和预测至关重要。目的：分析口腔癌的发病率和死亡率系列的行为，以在Ciego de Avila省进行为期三年的预测。方法：进行了时间序列回顾性纵向描述性研究。基于八年（2007-2014）的年发病率和十二年（2003-2014）的死亡率，对口腔癌的时间序列进行了分析。使用简单，快速，有效的方法来获得预后：最小二乘法和两参数指数平滑法，该方法可以平滑局部振荡，从而可以了解该系列的趋势。使用了软件EVIEWS 4.1。结果：关于发病率，每年的预后估计约为73例，未来几年的预测区间为59到87。关于死亡率，获得了非常狭窄的预测间隔，范围在26到50之间，每年大约有37例死亡。结论：该省口腔癌的发病率和死亡率序列的行为正在增加，并且估计在未来三年中它将继续增长。

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