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首页> 外文期刊>Research in Geophysics >Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering
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Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering

机译：基于流行类型余震序列（ETAS）模型的短期地震长期预报

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Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan) Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.
机译：基于用于描述地震发生的短期聚类特征的ETAS（流行型余震序列）模型，本文提出了与给定空间中最大震级的概率分布评估有关的一些理论和技术。时间窗口，无法直接应用古腾堡-里希特地震震级分布定律。可以看出，在给定的时空范围内，最大震级的分布长期取决于背景地震活动率和每个地震群中最大事件的震级分布。 1926年至2009年期间，引入的技术被应用于日本地区的地震活动中。发现最有可能发生大地震的地区是东北（日本东北）弧和千岛弧沿线，两者都更高比南海和东海近海地区的概率高。

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