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首页> 外文期刊>Science Advances >Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity
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Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity

机译：可塑性揭示了全球sal多样性热点地区在气候变化下的灭绝抵抗力

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Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual’s capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.
机译：预计灭绝速度将在气候变暖下呈指数增长，但其中许多预测都忽略了可能缓冲物种灭绝的生理和行为可塑性。我们评估了全球适应of多样性热点地区气候适应的生理适应性和避免恶劣气候条件以降低灭绝风险的潜力，sal目前是该地区因变暖而失去大部分warm栖息地的地区。我们的方法将实验生理学和行为整合到机械物种分布模型中，以根据个体维持能量平衡（无论是否具有可塑性）的能力来预测灭绝风险。我们评估了灭绝风险对体重，行为策略，能量摄入的限制以及失水和代谢率的生理适应性的敏感性。野外和实验室实验表明sal能以保持正能量平衡的方式使水分流失率和新陈代谢率适应。在气候变暖的情况下，尤其是在其范围的核心部分，具有可塑性的投影可以将灭绝风险降低72％。进一步的分析表明，在气候变暖下，青少年可能承受最大的生理压力，但是我们确定了可以使对青少年施加致命的生理压力最小化的特定生理适应或可塑性反应。我们得出结论，通过减少sal多样性多样性热点地区的灭绝风险，纳入可塑性从根本上改变了气候变化下的生态预测。

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