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首页> 外文期刊>South-East European Forestry >The Decline of Vitality Caused by Increasing Drought in a Beech Provenance Trial Predicted by Juvenile Growth
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The Decline of Vitality Caused by Increasing Drought in a Beech Provenance Trial Predicted by Juvenile Growth

机译：幼年生长预测的山毛榉种源试验中干旱增加导致生命力下降

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Background and Purpose: Due to rapidly changing environmental conditions, locally adapted tree populations are likely to experience climate conditions to which they are not well adapted. Common garden experiments provide a powerful tool for studying adaptive responses in changing climates. Out of the 1998 series of international beech provenance trials, one experiment was established in Bucsuta, SW Hungary. Because of its peripheral location, this is probably the most apposite site in the experimental series to study and predict responses of populations to sudden climatic changes, simulated by transfer. Material and Methods: 15-year diameter data of 28 beech populations from different regions of Europe were used to mimic responses to climate change by transplantation to the test site. The effect of 17 climate variables and five derived climate indices on growth have been compared, while Ellenberg drought index (EQ) was selected for calculating a linear regression (transfer function) to project a growth trend for future climate change. Results: Out of the bioclimatic variables, Ellenberg drought index at the location of the origin of provenances has shown the best correlation with 15-year diameter. The regression of growth vs. the ecodistance of transfer (difference between data of the trial site and of the site of origin), expressed in EQ, explained 25% of the total variation between provenances and indicated a clear trend of declining performance with the increasing change of climate the populations were adapted to. Conclusion: Negative effect of rapid climate change on beech populations cannot be denied, and the results draw attention to the importance of using appropriate planting stock matching with future climate conditions at the planting site.
机译：背景和目的：由于环境条件的迅速变化，适应当地情况的树木种群可能会遇到气候条件，因此无法很好地适应它们。常见的花园实验为研究气候变化中的适应性反应提供了强大的工具。在1998年国际山毛榉种源试验系列中，在匈牙利西南部Bucsuta建立了一个实验。由于其外围位置，这可能是实验系列中最合适的站点，用于研究和预测种群对通过迁移模拟的突然气候变化的响应。材料和方法：使用来自欧洲不同地区的28个山毛榉种群的15年直径数据，通过移植到测试地点来模拟对气候变化的响应。比较了17个气候变量和5个衍生气候指数对增长的影响，同时选择了Ellenberg干旱指数（EQ）来计算线性回归（传递函数）以预测未来气候变化的增长趋势。结果：在生物气候变量中，物源起源位置的埃伦伯格干旱指数与15年直径显示出最佳相关性。以EQ表示的增长与转移的生态距离的回归（试验站点和原始站点的数据之间的差异）解释了起源之间总变异的25％，并表明随着性能的增加，性能明显下降的趋势人口适应的气候变化。结论：气候变化对山毛榉种群的负面影响不可否认，研究结果引起了人们的注意，即在种植地点使用与未来气候条件相匹配的适当种植种群的重要性。

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