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首页> 外文期刊>South-East European Forestry >Biogeochemical Modelling vs. Tree-Ring Measurements - Comparison of Growth Dynamic Estimates at Two Distinct Oak Forests in Croatia
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Biogeochemical Modelling vs. Tree-Ring Measurements - Comparison of Growth Dynamic Estimates at Two Distinct Oak Forests in Croatia

机译：生物地球化学建模与树环测量-克罗地亚两个不同橡树林中生长动态估算值的比较

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Background and Purpose: Biogeochemical process?based models use a mathematical representation of physical processes with the aim of simulating and predicting past or future state of ecosystems (e.g. forests). Such models, usually executed as computer programs, rely on environmental variables as drivers, hence they can be used in studies of expected changes in environmental conditions. Process?based models are continuously developed and improved with new scientific findings and newly available datasets. In the case of forests, long-term tree chronologies, either from monitoring or from tree-ring data, offer valuable means for testing modelling results. Information from different tree cores can cover a wide range of ecological and meteorological conditions and as such provide satisfactory temporal and spatial resolution to be used for model testing and improvement. Materials and Methods: In our research, we used tree-ring data as a ground truth to test the performance of Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo) model in two distinct pedunculate oak forest areas, Kupa River Basin (called Pokupsko Basin) and Spa?va River Basin, corresponding to a wetter and a drier site, respectively. Comparison of growth estimates from two different data sources was performed by estimating the dynamics of standardized basal area increment (BAI) from tree-ring data and standardized net primary productivity of stem wood (NPPw) from BBGCMuSo model. The estimated growth dynamics during 2000-2014 were discussed regarding the site-specific conditions and the observed meteorology. Results: The results showed similar growth dynamic obtained from the model at both investigated locations, although growth estimates from tree-ring data revealed differences between wetter and drier environment. This indicates higher model sensitivity to meteorology (positive temperature anomalies and negative precipitation anomalies during vegetation period) than to site-specific conditions (groundwater, soil type). At both locations, Pokupsko and Spa?va, BBGCMuSo showed poor predictive power in capturing the dynamics obtained from tree?ring data. Conclusions: BBGCMuSo model, similar to other process-based models, is primarily driven by meteorology, although site-specific conditions are an important factor affecting lowland oak forests’ growth dynamics. When possible, groundwater information should be included in the modelling of lowland oak forests in order to obtain better predictions. The observed discrepancies between measured and modelled data indicate that fixed carbon allocation, currently implemented in the model, fails in predicting growth dynamics of NPP. Dynamic carbon allocation routine should be implemented in the model to better capture tree stress response and growth dynamics.
机译：背景与目的：基于生物地球化学过程的模型使用物理过程的数学表示形式，目的是模拟和预测生态系统（例如森林）的过去或未来状态。这种通常作为计算机程序执行的模型依赖于环境变量作为驱动因素，因此可用于研究环境条件的预期变化。基于过程的模型通过新的科学发现和新的可用数据集不断开发和改进。就森林而言，无论是来自监视还是来自树年轮数据的长期树木年代，都为测试建模结果提供了宝贵的手段。来自不同树芯的信息可以涵盖广泛的生态和气象条件，因此提供了令人满意的时空分辨率，可用于模型测试和改进。材料和方法：在我们的研究中，我们使用树环数据作为基础事实，以测试在两个不同的有花梗的橡树林区Kupa河盆地（称为Pokupsko盆地）和Spa？va的Biome-BGCMuSo（BBGCMuSo）模型的性能。流域，分别对应于一个潮湿的地方和一个干燥的地方。通过根据树木年轮数据估算标准化的基础面积增加量（BAI）和根据BBGCMuSo模型估算的标准干木净净初级生产力（NPPw）的动态，对来自两个不同数据源的生长估算值进行了比较。讨论了2000-2014年期间估计的生长动态，涉及特定地点的条件和观测到的气象学。结果：尽管从树木年轮数据得出的生长估计显示出潮湿和干燥的环境之间存在差异，但结果显示，在两个调查的位置上都从该模型获得了相似的生长动力学。这表明模型对气象（在植被时期的正温度异常和负降水异常）的敏感性高于对特定地点的条件（地下水，土壤类型）的敏感性。在两个地方，Pokupsko和Spa？va，BBGCMuSo在捕获从树木年轮数据获得的动态方面显示出较差的预测能力。结论：BBGCMuSo模型类似于其他基于过程的模型，主要由气象学驱动，尽管特定地点的条件是影响低地栎林生长动态的重要因素。可能的话，在低地栎树林的建模中应包括地下水信息，以便获得更好的预测。在实测数据和建模数据之间观察到的差异表明，目前在模型中实施的固定碳分配未能预测NPP的增长动态。在模型中应实施动态碳分配程序，以更好地捕获树木的应力响应和生长动态。

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