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Effects of Climate Change on the Yield and Cropping Area of Major Food Crops: A Case of Bangladesh

机译:气候变化对主要粮食作物单产和面积的影响:以孟加拉国为例

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The crops that we grow for food need specific climatic conditions to show better performance in view of economic yield. A changing climate could have both beneficial and harmful effects on crops. Keeping the above view in mind, this study is undertaken to investigate the impacts of climate change (viz. changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine) on the yield and cropping area of four major food crops (viz. Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice and wheat) in Bangladesh. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard error (HAC) and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) methods were used to determine the climate-crop interrelations using national level time series data for the period of 1972–2010. Findings revealed that the effects of all the climate variables have had significant contributions to the yield and cropping area of major food crops with distinct variation among them. Maximum temperature statistically significantly affected all the food crops’ yield except Aus rice. Maximum temperature also insignificantly affected cropping area of all the crops. Minimum temperature insignificantly affected Aman rice but benefited other three crops’ yield and cropping area. Rainfall significantly benefitted cropping area of Aus rice, but significantly affected both yield and cropping area of Aman rice. Humidity statistically positively contributed to the yield of Aus and Aman rice but, statistically, negatively influenced the cropping area of Aus rice. Sunshine statistically significantly benefitted only Boro rice yield. Overall, maximum temperature adversely affected yield and cropping area of all the major food crops and rainfall severely affected Aman rice only. Concerning the issue of climate change and ensuring food security, the respective authorities thus should give considerable attention to the generation, development and extension of drought (all major food crops) and flood (particularly Aman rice) tolerant varieties.
机译:考虑到经济产量,我们为粮食而种植的农作物需要特定的气候条件才能表现出更好的表现。气候变化可能对作物产生有利和有害的影响。谨记以上观点,本研究旨在研究气候变化(最高温度,最低温度,降雨量,湿度和阳光的变化)对四种主要粮食作物(即澳大利亚)的产量和种植面积的影响。大米,阿曼大米,博罗大米和小麦)。利用国家水平时间序列数据,使用异方差和自相关一致标准误差(HAC)和可行的广义最小二乘(FGLS)方法确定气候-作物相互关系。研究结果表明,所有气候变量的影响对主要粮食作物的产量和种植面积均具有重大贡献,且各作物之间存在明显差异。最高温度在统计上显着影响除澳大利亚大米以外的所有粮食作物的产量。最高温度对所有农作物的播种面积也没有影响。最低温度对阿曼大米的影响不显着,但对其他三种作物的产量和收成面积却有利。降雨显着影响了Aus水稻的种植面积,但显着影响了Aman水稻的产量和种植面积。湿度在统计上对Aus和Aman稻的产量有正面影响,但在统计上对Aus稻的种植面积有负面影响。从统计学上讲,阳光仅使博罗水稻的产量受益。总体而言,最高温度对所有主要粮食作物的产量和收成面积均产生不利影响,而降雨仅对阿曼稻米造成严重影响。关于气候变化和确保粮食安全的问题,因此,有关当局应对干旱(所有主要粮食作物)和洪水(特别是阿曼大米)的耐性品种的产生,发展和扩展给予相当的重视。

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