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首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005
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Land Use Adaptation to Climate Change: Economic Damages from Land-Falling Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf States of the USA, 1900–2005

机译：适应气候变化的土地利用：1900-2005年美国大西洋和海湾国家陆地滑坡造成的经济损失

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摘要

Global climate change, especially the phenomena of global warming, is expected to increase the intensity of land-falling hurricanes. Societal adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability from increasingly intense hurricanes. This study quantifies the adaptation effects of potentially policy driven caps on housing densities and agricultural cover in coastal (and adjacent inland) areas vulnerable to hurricane damages in the Atlantic and Gulf Coastal regions of the U.S. Time series regressions, especially Prais-Winston and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, are estimated to forecast the economic impacts of hurricanes of varying intensity, given that various patterns of land use emerge in the Atlantic and Gulf coastal states of the U.S. The Prais-Winston and ARMA models use observed time series data from 1900 to 2005 for inflation adjusted hurricane damages and socio-economic and land-use data in the coastal or inland regions where hurricanes caused those damages. The results from this study provide evidence that increases in housing density and agricultural cover cause significant rise in the de-trended inflation-adjusted damages. Further, higher intensity and frequency of land-falling hurricanes also significantly increase the economic damages. The evidence from this study implies that a medium to long term land use adaptation in the form of capping housing density and agricultural cover in the coastal (and adjacent inland) states can significantly reduce economic damages from intense hurricanes. Future studies must compare the benefits of such land use adaptation policies against the costs of development controls implied in housing density caps and agricultural land cover reductions.
机译：预计全球气候变化，尤其是全球变暖现象，将增加登陆土地的飓风的强度。需要社会适应，以减少日益加剧的飓风带来的脆弱性。这项研究量化了可能的政策驱动型上限对在美国大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸地区容易遭受飓风破坏的沿海（及邻近内陆）地区的住房密度和农业覆盖面的适应性影响。时间序列回归，尤其是Prais-Winston和Autoregressive Moving鉴于美国大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸州出现了各种土地利用方式，估计平均（ARMA）模型可预测强度不同的飓风的经济影响。Prais-Winston和ARMA模型使用的观测时间序列数据来自1900到2005年间，通货膨胀调整后的飓风损害以及沿海或内陆地区的飓风造成这些损害的社会经济和土地利用数据。这项研究的结果提供了证据，即住房密度和农业覆盖面的增加会导致通货膨胀调整后的损失趋势显着增加。此外，登陆飓风的强度和频率更高，也大大增加了经济损失。这项研究的证据表明，以沿海地区（及邻近内陆地区）的房屋密度和农业覆盖率上限为形式的中长期土地利用适应措施，可以显着减少强烈飓风对经济的破坏。未来的研究必须将这种土地利用适应政策的好处与住房密度上限和减少农业土地覆盖所隐含的发展控制成本进行比较。

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