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Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun?

机译:耀斑会在我们的太阳上发生吗?

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RecentobservationsofSun-likestars,similartoourSunintheirsurfacetemperature(5600a€“6000K)andslowrotation(rotationalperiod$$$$10d),usingtheKeplersatellitebyMaeharaetal.(2012,Nature,485,478)haverevealedtheexistenceofsuperflares(withenergyof10$$^{33}$$a€“10$$^{35}$$erg).Fromstatisticalanalysesofthesesuperflares,itwasfoundthatsuperflareswithenergyof10$$^{34}$$ergoccuroncein800yr,andsuperflareswith10$$^{35}$$ergoccuroncein5000yr.Inthispaper,weexaminewhethersuperflareswithenergyof10$$^{33}$$a€“10$$^{35}$$ergcouldoccuronthepresentSunthroughtheuseofsimpleorder-of-magnitudeestimatesbasedoncurrentideasrelatedtothemechanismsofthesolardynamo.Ifmagneticfluxisgeneratedbydifferentialrotationatthebaseoftheconvectionzone,asassumedintypicaldynamomodels,itispossiblethatthepresentSunwouldgeneratealargesunspotwithatotalmagneticfluxof$$sim$$2$$ imes$$10$$^{23}$$Mx($$=$$Gcm$$^{2}$$)withinonesolarcycleperiod,andleadtosuperflareswithanenergyof10$$^{34}$$erg.Tostoreatotalmagneticfluxof$$sim$$10$$^{24}$$Mx,necessaryforgenerating10$$^{35}$$ergsuperflares,itwouldtake$$sim$$40yr.HotJupitershaveoftenbeenarguedtobeanecessaryingredientforthegenerationofsuperflares,butwefoundthattheydonotplayanyessentialroleinthegenerationofmagneticfluxinthestaritself,ifweconsideronlythemagneticinteractionbetweenthestarandthehotJupiter.ThisseemstobeconsistentwithMaeharaetal.'sfindingof148superflare-generatingsolar-typestarsthatdonothaveahotJupiter-likecompanion.Altogether,oursimplecalculations,combinedwithMaeharaetal.'sanalysisofsuperflaresonSun-likestars,showthatthereisapossibilitythatsuperflaresof10$$^{34}$$ergwouldoccuroncein800yronourpresentSun.
机译:最近对太阳状恒星的观测,类似于太阳在其表面温度(5600a“ 6000K”)和慢速旋转(自转周期$ 10d)的情况,使用的是Maeharaetal的开普勒卫星。(2012年,自然,485,478)使存在的超耀斑($ 10 $($ 10 $ 33)的^^耀光的存在得以平均。 {35} $$ erg)。通过对这些超级耀斑的统计分析,发现超级耀斑的能量为800 $,$ 10 ^ $ {{34} $$ ergoccuronce在800yr,超级耀斑的能量为10 $$ ^^ {35} $$ ergoccuronce,在5000yr。本文中,我们检查超级耀斑是否{10}的能量为$ 10 $$ ^。 {35} $$ ergcouldoccuronthepresentSunthroughtheuseofsimpleorder-的-magnitudeestimatesbasedoncurrentideasrelatedtothemechanismsofthesolardynamo.Ifmagneticfluxisgeneratedbydifferentialrotationatthebaseoftheconvectionzone,asassumedintypicaldynamomodels,itispossiblethatthepresentSunwouldgeneratealargesunspotwithatotalmagneticfluxof $$ SIM $$ 2 $$的IME $$ 10 $$ ^ {23} $$ MX($$ = $$ GCM $$ ^ {2} $$ )在一个太阳周期内,并以10 $$ ^ {34} $$ erg的能量导致超耀斑。存储$$ sim $$ 10 $$ ^ {24} $$ Mx,nec的总磁通量essaryforgenerating10 $$ ^ {35} $$ ergsuperflares,itwouldtake $$ SIM $$ 40yr.HotJupitershaveoftenbeenarguedtobeanecessaryingredientforthegenerationofsuperflares,butwefoundthattheydonotplayanyessentialroleinthegenerationofmagneticfluxinthestaritself,ifweconsideronlythemagneticinteractionbetweenthestarandthehotJupiter.ThisseemstobeconsistentwithMaeharaetal.'sfindingof148superflare-generatingsolar-typestarsthatdonothaveahotJupiter-likecompanion.Altogether,oursimplecalculations,combinedwithMaeharaetal.'sanalysisofsuperflaresonSun-likestars,showthatthereisapossibilitythatsuperflaresof10 $$ ^ {34} $$ ergwouldoccuroncein800yronourpresentSun。

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