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首页> 外文期刊>PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases >Correlation of the basic reproduction number (R0) and eco-environmental variables in Colombian municipalities with chikungunya outbreaks during 2014-2016
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Correlation of the basic reproduction number (R0) and eco-environmental variables in Colombian municipalities with chikungunya outbreaks during 2014-2016

机译：2014-2016年哥伦比亚直辖市爆发基孔肯雅热的基本繁殖数量（R0）和生态环境变量的相关性

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摘要

Chikungunya virus emerged in Colombia in 2014 into a presumed fully susceptible population and rapidly spread in the country. Numerous municipalities were differently affected by this virus across the country. The main purpose of this work was understanding why those differences were produced and, in turn, what are the variables addressing such differences. For this purpose, we estimated for 85 municipalities the basic reproduction number (R0), a crucial parameter to understand epidemics that is expressed as the number of secondary cases produced by a primary case. Such parameter was correlated with numerous variables resulting evident a crucial role of temperature in the increase of R0. Interestingly, other variables like size of the urban area and cases showed to be negatively correlated with R0. Results shows that high temperatures produce high R0, but those municipalities that showed high R0 showed an explosive epidemic with faster increase of cases that ceased equally fast, so the duration of epidemic is short producing small amount of cases. In this way, more cases are expected with municipalities with lower values of R0, which is suitably explained by the tortoise-hare model, where the less explosive outbreak results to be more advantageous for the virus.
机译：基孔肯雅病病毒于2014年在哥伦比亚出现，成为假定的完全易感人群，并在该国迅速传播。全国各地的许多城市都受到这种病毒的影响。这项工作的主要目的是了解为什么会产生这些差异，以及解决这些差异的变量是什么。为此，我们估计了85个城市的基本繁殖数量（R0），这是理解流行病的关键参数，它表示为主要病例产生的继发病例数。该参数与众多变量相关，从而明显证明了温度在R0升高中的关键作用。有趣的是，其他变量（如城市面积和案例）与R0呈负相关。结果表明，高温产生高R0，但那些显示高R0的城市表现出爆发性流行病，且病例增长更快，而停止也同样快，因此流行病持续时间短，产生少量病例。这样，在R0值较低的城市，预计会有更多的情况发生，这可以通过陆龟-野兔模型适当地解释，在这种情况下，爆发性较小的爆发对病毒更有利。

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