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Effects of More Stringent Sulphur Requirements for Sea Transports

机译：海上运输对硫的更严格要求的影响

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In 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on more stringent requirements from 2015 for airborne emissions of sulphur dioxide from sea transports in the sulphur emission control areas (SECA). The European SECA comprises the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the English Channel. The paper contains an overview of the European studies that have been carried out to investigate the impacts of IMO's more stringent sulphur requirements. All studies were carried out after IMO's decision in 2008 (which means that the decision was taken based on other reasons). The studies focus on different aspects but all of them estimate how IMO's stricter requirements will affect the sea transport costs. The Swedish impact studies are described in particular: in the 2009 study the national transport model Samgods was used and in 2013 both the Samgods model and the agent-based simulation model Tapas. Impacts on the choice of transport chains, routes and ports are calculated. The results indicate that shippers to some extent can reduce the increase in transport cost by transferring flows from the Swedish east coast to the Swedish south and west coast, the Norwegian coast and the land-based route via Denmark. Modal back shifts from sea to rail and road occur. These shifts are modest, especially if higher prices for diesel and higher rail track fees are assumed on top of more stringent sulphur requirements in the SECA. One important question is to what extent the increases in costs that are due to more stringent requirements can be compensated for by improved efficiency of the transports, such as the exploitation of economies of scale.
机译：2008年，国际海事组织（IMO）决定从2015年起对硫磺排放管制区（SECA）中海上运输产生的二氧化硫的空气传播排放提出更严格的要求。欧洲SECA包括波罗的海，北海和英吉利海峡。该文件包含了对欧洲研究的概述，这些研究是为了调查IMO更加严格的硫要求的影响而进行的。所有研究都是在IMO在2008年做出决定后进行的（这意味着该决定是基于其他原因做出的）。研究侧重于不同方面，但所有这些研究都估计了IMO更加严格的要求将如何影响海上运输成本。特别介绍了瑞典的影响研究：2009年的研究使用了国家运输模型Samgods，2013年使用了Samgods模型和基于代理的仿真模型Tapas。计算对运输链，路线和港口选择的影响。结果表明，托运人可以通过将流量从瑞典东海岸转移到瑞典南，西海岸，挪威海岸以及通过丹麦的陆路路线，在一定程度上降低运输成本。发生了从海上到铁路和公路的模态后移。这些变化是适度的，尤其是在SECA要求更严格的硫要求的前提下，假设柴油价格上涨和铁路收费更高的情况下。一个重要的问题是，可以通过提高运输效率（例如利用规模经济）来补偿由于更加严格的要求而导致的成本增加在多大程度上得到补偿。

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