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首页> 外文期刊>Turkish Journal of Agriculture & Forestry >Using Real Options Theory to Analyze the Impacts of Urban Development on Farm Real Estate Markets
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Using Real Options Theory to Analyze the Impacts of Urban Development on Farm Real Estate Markets

机译：使用实物期权理论分析城市发展对农场房地产市场的影响

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This paper assesses the real option values of farmland using data from Ohio, USA. The option value of delaying the sale of a farm property was measured using an emerging, relatively new theory namely, the theory of real options pricing. As opposed to standard corporate finance theory, this new theory incorporates both the uncertainty about the future net benefits of a selling decision and the irreversibility of this action taken. Results from this option value calculation show that the vast majority of real call option values calculated for this sample are greater than zero, suggesting that deferring the decision to sell farmland is optimal for most Ohio landowners. The study then seeks to associate the impacts of urban development on Ohio farm-real estate with some important real option-determining factors suggested by the literature. To set forth this association, these option-determining factors were independently regressed on some urbanization-related variables to find out the relation between these variables. Results from this econometric analysis indicate that urban influences along with some farm and non-farm variables thought to be correlated with the land’s option value are all important factors affecting the value of the state’s farmland.
机译：本文使用来自美国俄亥俄州的数据评估农田的实物期权价值。使用一种新兴的，相对较新的理论，即实物期权定价理论，来衡量延迟出售农场财产的期权价值。与标准公司财务理论相反，这种新理论既包含了有关出售决策的未来净收益的不确定性，也包含了所采取行动的不可逆性。此期权价值计算的结果表明，为此样本计算的绝大多数真实看涨期权价值大于零，这表明推迟出售土地的决定对于大多数俄亥俄州的土地所有者而言都是最佳选择。然后，该研究试图将城市发展对俄亥俄州农场房地产的影响与文献中提出的一些重要的实际选择决定因素联系起来。为了建立这种联系，将这些决定选项的因素独立地回归到一些与城市化有关的变量上，以找出这些变量之间的关系。计量经济学分析的结果表明，城市影响以及一些与土地选择权相关的农场和非农业变量都是影响该州耕地价值的重要因素。

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