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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Korean medical science. >Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control
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Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control

机译：灌木斑疹伤寒的数学建模及其对疾病控制的意义

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Background The incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease. Methods We developed mathematical models of ordinary differential equations including human, rodent and mite groups. Two models, including simple and complex models, were developed, and all parameters employed in the models were adopted from previous articles that represent epidemiological situations in the Republic of Korea. Results The simulation results showed that the force of infection at the equilibrium state under the simple model was 0.236 (per 100,000 person-months), and that in the complex model was 26.796 (per 100,000 person-months). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential parameters were rodent and mite populations and contact rate between them for the simple model, and trans-ovarian transmission for the complex model. In both models, contact rate between humans and mites is more influential than morality rate of rodent and mite group. Conclusion The results indicate that the effect of controlling either rodents or mites could be limited, and reducing the contact rate between humans and mites is more practical and effective strategy. However, the current level of control would be insufficient relative to the growing mite population. Go to: Graphical Abstract
机译：背景技术在韩国，灌木斑疹伤寒的发病率一直在上升。先前的研究表明，这种趋势可能是由于气候变化对病媒和宿主之间传播动态的影响所致，但仍缺乏对该过程的清晰解释。在这项研究中，我们应用数学模型来探索影响of虫病流行病学的潜在因素。方法我们开发了包括人，啮齿动物和螨类在内的常微分方程的数学模型。开发了两个模型，包括简单模型和复杂模型，并且该模型中使用的所有参数均来自以前的文章，这些文章代表了韩国的流行病学情况。结果仿真结果表明，简单模型在平衡状态下的感染力为0.236（每100,000人-月），而在复杂模型下为26.796（每100,000人-月）。敏感性分析表明，对于简单模型，最具影响力的参数是啮齿动物和螨虫种群以及它们之间的接触率，对于复杂模型，则是经卵巢传播。在这两种模型中，人与螨的接触率比啮齿动物和螨的道德率具有更大的影响力。结论结果表明，控制啮齿动物或螨虫的效果可能受到限制，而降低人与螨虫的接触率是更实际和有效的策略。但是，相对于不断增长的螨虫种群，当前的控制水平将不足。转到：图形摘要

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