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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Maize Research and Development >Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal
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Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal

机译：尼泊尔纳瓦尔帕拉西在不同农艺管理和气候变化情况下雨养玉米生长和产量的模拟

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A field experiment and simulation modeling study in combination for different maize cultivars planted at different sowing dates were accomplished at Kawasoti-5, Nawalparasi during spring season of 2013 to assess the impact of climate change scenario as predicted by IPCC in rainfed spring maize by using CSM-CERESMaize model. Result showed that RML-4/RML-17 produced higher kernel rows/ ear (13.77), kernel per row (30.42) and test weight (244.9 g). Significantly higher grain yield was also found for RML-4/RML-17 (6.03 t/ha) compared to Poshilo makai-1 (4.73 t/ha), Arun-2 (3.55 t/ha) and Local (2.92 t/ha). Earlier sowing date (7th April) actually produced higher kernel/row (27.97), kernel rows/ear (12.89) and 1000 grain weight (230 g). Significantly higher grain yield (5.13t/ha) was obtained in earlier sowing date (7th April). The CSM-CERES-Maize model was calibrated and found well validated with days to anthesis (RMSE= 0.426 day and D-index= 0.998), days to physiological maturity (RMSE=0.674 day and D-index= 0.999), number of grain/m2 at maturity (RMSE= 85.287 grain /m2 and D-index= 0.993), unit weight at maturity (RMSE=0.012 g/kernel and D-index= 0.854) and grain yield (RMSE=54.94 kg/haand D-index= 1.00). The model was found sensitive to climate change parameters. The sensitivity for various climate change parameter indicated that there was severely decreased trend in simulated rainfed spring maize yield with the increment of maximum and minimum temperature, decrease in solar radiation and decrease carbondioxide concentration. Even 20 C rise in temperature can decrease around 15-20% yield of spring maize and this negative effect was even more pronounced in hybrid than other cultivars.
机译：2013年春季，在Nawalparasi的Kawasoti-5进行了针对不同播种日期的不同玉米品种的田间试验和模拟建模研究，以评估IPCC预测的气候变化情景对使用CSM的雨育春玉米的影响-CERES玉米模型。结果表明，RML-4 / RML-17产生更高的籽粒行数/每穗（13.77），每行籽粒数（30.42）和测试重量（244.9 g）。与Poshilo makai-1（4.73 t / ha），Arun-2（3.55 t / ha）和Local（2.92 t / ha）相比，RML-4 / RML-17（6.03 t / ha）的谷物单产也高得多）。较早的播种日期（4月7日）实际上产生了更高的籽粒/行（27.97），籽粒行/穗（12.89）和1000粒重（230 g）。在较早的播种日期（4月7日），谷物产量显着提高（5.13t / ha）。对CSM-CERES-玉米模型进行了校准，发现花粉天数（RMSE = 0.426天，D-指数= 0.998），生理成熟天数（RMSE = 0.674天和D-index = 0.999），谷物数量得到了很好的验证。 / m2成熟期（RMSE = 85.287谷物/ m2和D-指数= 0.993），成熟时单位重量（RMSE = 0.012 g /仁和D-index = 0.854）和谷物产量（RMSE = 54.94 kg / ha和D-index = 1.00）。发现该模型对气候变化参数敏感。对各种气候变化参数的敏感性表明，随着最高和最低温度的升高，模拟雨养春玉米产量的趋势显着下降，太阳辐射下降，二氧化碳浓度下降。即使温度升高20 C也会降低春玉米的产量约15-20％，而这种不利影响在杂种中比其他品种更加明显。

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