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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Maize Research and Development >Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal
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Simulation of growth and yield of rainfed maize under varied agronomic management and changing climatic scenario in Nawalparasi, Nepal

机译：尼泊尔纳瓦尔帕拉西不同农艺管理下雨玉米生长和产量的模拟

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A field experiment and simulation modeling study in combination for different maize cultivars planted at different sowing dates were accomplished at Kawasoti-5, Nawalparasi during spring season of 2013 to assess the impact of climate change scenario as predicted by IPCC in rainfed spring maize by using CSM-CERES-Maize model. Result showed that RML-4/RML-17 produced higher kernel rows/ ear (13.77), kernel per row (30.42) and test weight (244.9 g). Significantly higher grain yield was also found for RML-4/RML-17 (6.03 t/ha) compared to Poshilo makai-1 (4.73 t/ha), Arun-2 (3.55 t/ha) and Local (2.92 t/ha). Earlier sowing date (7th April) actually produced higher kernel/row (27.97), kernel rows/ear (12.89) and 1000 grain weight (230 g). Significantly higher grain yield (5.13t/ha) was obtained in earlier sowing date (7th April). The CSM-CERES-Maize model was calibrated and found well validated with days to anthesis (RMSE= 0.426 day and D-index= 0.998), days to physiological maturity (RMSE=0.674 day and D-index= 0.999), number of grain/m 2 at maturity (RMSE= 85.287 grain /m 2 and D-index= 0.993), unit weight at maturity (RMSE=0.012 g/kernel and D-index= 0.854) and grain yield (RMSE=54.94 kg/ha and D-index= 1.00). The model was found sensitive to climate change parameters. The sensitivity for various climate change parameter indicated that there was severely decreased trend in simulated rainfed spring maize yield with the increment of maximum and minimum temperature, decrease in solar radiation and decrease carbondioxide concentration. Even 2°C rise in temperature can decrease around 15-20% yield of spring maize and this negative effect was even more pronounced in hybrid than other cultivars.
机译：在2013年春季的Kawasoti-5，Nawalparasi在kawasoti-5种植不同玉米品种的田间试验和模拟建模研究，以评估气候变化情景的影响，通过使用CSM雨水春玉米IPCC预测的气候变化场景 - 玉米模型。结果表明，RML-4 / RML-17产生了更高的核，核/耳（13.77），核，每行核（30.42）和试验重量（244.9g）。与Poshilo Makai-1（4.73 T / HA），Arun-2（3.55 T / HA）和局部（2.92T / HA）相比，还发现了RML-4 / RML-17（6.03 T / HA）的谷物产量明显较高的谷物产量。 ）。早些时候播种日期（4月7日）实际上产生了更高的内核/行（27.97），内核行/耳（12.89）和1000粒重量（230g）。在早期的播种日期（4月7日）中获得了显着提高的谷物产量（5.13t /公顷）。 CSM-Ceres-MAIZE模型被校准并发现用日期验证，用期验证到开花（RMSE = 0.426天和D-Index = 0.998），生理成熟天（RMSE = 0.674天和D-Index = 0.999），谷物数量/ m 2在成熟时（RMSE = 85.287粒/ m 2和D-Index = 0.993），成熟时的单位重量（RMSE = 0.012 g /核和D-Index = 0.854）和谷物产量（RMSE = 54.94 kg / ha和d-index = 1.00）。发现模型对气候变化参数敏感。各种气候变化参数的灵敏度表明，模拟雨水春玉米产量的趋势严重降低，增量最大和最小温度，太阳辐射减少，降低了碳二氧化物浓度。甚至2°C的温度升高会降低春玉米的15-20％屈服率约为15-20％，这种负面影响比其他品种在杂交中更加明显。

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