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The Long-term Stability Analysis of China’s Rural Land Mortgage Lending:A Perspective from Asymmetric Evolutionary Game

机译:中国农村土地抵押贷款的长期稳定性分析:基于不对称演化博弈的视角

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This paper employs an asymmetric evolutionary model to analyze the cooperative relationship of rural land mortgage loan between farmers and rural financial institutions, which simulates the strategic options and analyses for the long-term stability on various parameters. The result shows that there are two strategic statuses of the long-term stability on the relationship of farmers and rural financial institutions, in which both sides adopt lending strategy or non-lending strategy simultaneously. To maintain the feasibility of long-term stability in rural land mortgage lending, two conditions must be met: first, when farmers would like to apply for a loan, the expected net agricultural income is more than the sum of the risk for losing the right to rural land contractual management and transaction cost; second, while rural financial institutions are willing to provide loans, the expected interest income and the value of the right to rural land contractual management are greater than the irrecoverable loan risk and supervision cost.
机译:本文采用非对称进化模型分析了农户与农村金融机构之间农村土地抵押贷款的合作关系,模拟了战略选择并分析了各种参数的长期稳定性。结果表明,农民与农村金融机构之间的长期稳定存在两个战略地位,即双方同时采取借贷策略或不借贷策略。为了保持农村土地抵押贷款长期稳定的可行性,必须满足两个条件:首先,当农民想申请贷款时,预期的农业净收入大于丧失权利的风险之和。农村土地承包经营管理和交易费用;其次,虽然农村金融机构愿意提供贷款,但预期的利息收入和农村土地承包经营权的价值大于不可收回的贷款风险和监督成本。

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