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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Rural and Remote Environmental Health >STUDY OF POTENTIAL RISK OF DENGUE DISEASE OUTBREAK IN SRI LANKA USING GIS AND STATISTICAL MODELLING
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STUDY OF POTENTIAL RISK OF DENGUE DISEASE OUTBREAK IN SRI LANKA USING GIS AND STATISTICAL MODELLING

机译：基于GIS和统计建模的斯里兰卡登革热暴发潜在风险研究。

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Objectives: The increasing incidence of dengue fever has become a priority health issue for Sri Lanka. Recent dengue outbreaks in Sri Lanka show two trends: yearly increase of total number of dengue incidence and increasing dengue outbreaks outside the endemic urbanised areas in the south and the west. Identification of factors responsible for dengue outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Sri Lanka are long overdue. This study examines the association between weekly rainfall patterns and dengue outbreaks in the western province between 2000 and 2004. Methods: The study develops a model to quantitatively assess the relationship between rainfall and dengue outbreaks and then evaluate the suitability of the model for predicting dengue outbreaks. A power regression model was constructed using rainfall and dengue incidence data. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolator and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial distribution of dengue risk surfaces. Results: The results show that there is a strong correlation between dengue outbreaks and rainfall for majority of the towns studied. An error analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks. The analysis shows that the error component for selected cases is within a single outbreak. Conclusions: The ability to predict dengue outbreaks and mapping the spatial patterns facilitates dengue surveillance and monitoring.
机译：目标：登革热发病率上升已成为斯里兰卡的优先健康问题。斯里兰卡最近的登革热暴发显示出两种趋势：登革热发病总数的逐年增加和南部和西部地方性城市化地区以外登革热暴发的增加。早就应该确定造成登革热暴发的因素以及对斯里兰卡的潜在危险区域进行制图。本研究调查了2000年至2004年间西部省份每周降雨模式与登革热暴发之间的关联。方法：本研究建立了一个模型，用于定量评估降雨与登革热暴发之间的关系，然后评估该模型对预测登革热暴发的适用性。 。使用降雨和登革热发病率数据构建了功率回归模型。反向距离加权（IDW）插值器和地理信息系统（GIS）技术用于绘制登革热风险表面的空间分布图。结果：结果表明，大多数研究城镇的登革热暴发与降雨之间有很强的相关性。进行了误差分析，以比较模型输出和实际爆发情况来评估模型的有效性。分析表明，所选案例的错误分量在一次爆发内。结论：预测登革热暴发和绘制空间格局图的能力有助于登革热的监测和监测。

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