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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering >Uncertainty evaluation with fuzzy schedule risk analysis model in activity networks of construction projects
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Uncertainty evaluation with fuzzy schedule risk analysis model in activity networks of construction projects

机译：工程项目活动网络中模糊进度风险分析模型的不确定性评估

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ABSTRACT Construction projects are prone to uncertainty due to various risk factors, such as unexpected weather conditions and soil properties. Depending on this, the actual duration of activities frequently deviates from the estimated duration time in either favourable or adverse directions. For this reason, evaluation of uncertainty is required to make the correct decisions when managing construction project network schedules. In this regard, this paper presents a new computer-aided schedule risk analysis model - the Fuzzy Schedule Risk Analysis Model - to evaluate uncertain construction activity networks when activity duration and risk factors are correlated. The proposed model utilises Monte Carlo Simulation and a fuzzified Critical Path Method procedure conducted by fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations. The paper also includes an example application of the model to a housing project. The findings of this application show that the model operates well and produces realistic results in capturing correlation indirectly between activity durations and risk factors regarding the extent of uncertainty inherent in the schedule.
机译：摘要由于各种风险因素，例如意外的天气条件和土壤特性，建设项目容易出​​现不确定性。取决于此，活动的实际持续时间经常在有利或不利的方向上偏离估计的持续时间。因此，在管理建筑项目网络计划时，需要进行不确定性评估以做出正确的决定。在这方面，本文提出了一种新的计算机辅助进度风险分析模型-模糊进度风险分析模型-当活动持续时间和风险因素相关时，可以评估不确定的施工活动网络。所提出的模型利用了蒙特卡罗模拟和由模糊集和模糊运算进行的模糊关键路径法程序。本文还包括该模型在住房项目中的示例应用。该应用程序的结果表明，该模型运行良好，并且在间接捕获活动持续时间与进度表固有的不确定性程度的风险因素之间的相关性时产生了实际的结果。

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